Match Info

ITF WOMEN - SINGLES: W75 Caserta, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 6 June 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Caserta 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Federica Urgesi		Deborah Chiesa

	1	2
			Watch
	1.72	1.98
	1.70	2.02
	1.72	2.14
	1.72	2	Watch
	1.70	2.00
	1.70	2.01	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.83)	2.03 ↑ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Federica Urgesi
54.2%

Deborah Chiesa
45.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

42.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Federica Urgesi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Deborah Chiesa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federica Urgesi than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deborah Chiesa than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Federica Urgesi - Deborah Chiesa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Urgesi is ranked WTA: 356. Chiesa is ranked WTA: 453.

Currently, both players are in excellent shape.

Urgesi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Federica Urgesi - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federica Urgesi
ITF Tournaments
05.06.26	Marta Lombardini - Federica Urgesi	0:2 ✺
04.06.26	Gabriela Ce - Federica Urgesi	1:2 ✺
02.06.26	Federica Urgesi - Vivian Wolff	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.05.26	Federica Urgesi - Viktorija Golubic	0:2 ✺
11.05.26	Federica Urgesi - Maja Chwalinska	Chwalinska M. Retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WWWL?
- Deborah Chiesa
ITF Tournaments
05.06.26	Laura Pigossi - Deborah Chiesa	0:2 ✺
04.06.26	Martina Trevisan - Deborah Chiesa	0:2 ✺
03.06.26	Deborah Chiesa - Jessica Pieri	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.05.26	Deborah Chiesa - Maria Camila Osorio Serrano	0:2 ✺
11.05.26	Gabriela Ce - Deborah Chiesa	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWLW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Federica Urgesi
ITF Tournaments
29.10.26	Federica Urgesi - Isis Louise Van den Broek	✺
28.10.26	Federica Urgesi - Ann Akasha Ceuca	✺

Federica Urgesi - Deborah Chiesa