Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Zadar (Croatia) - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 17 March 2025, Monday


	Mirza Basic		Michael Vrbensky

	1	2
			Watch
	1.65	2.05	Watch
	1.7	2	Watch
	1.71	2.07	Watch
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.69	2.1	Watch
	1.7	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.95)	2.07 ↑ (1.75)

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mirza Basic
55.2%

Michael Vrbensky
44.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

52.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

54.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mirza Basic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mirza Basic's performance.

Michael Vrbensky has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Michael Vrbensky might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mirza Basic than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mirza Basic that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Vrbensky than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Michael Vrbensky could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Mirza Basic - Michael Vrbensky Predictions

Users Predictions: Mirza Basic will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Basic is ranked ATP: 543. Vrbensky is ranked ATP: 385.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Basic could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both players.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mirza Basic
ATP Challenger
16.03.25	Martin Klizan - Mirza Basic	Klizan M. retired ✺
ITF Tournaments
14.03.25	Mirza Basic - Mili Poljicak	0:2 ✺
13.03.25	Mirza Basic - Mak Mikovic	2:0 ✺
02.03.25	Alexander Weis - Mirza Basic	2:0 ✺
01.03.25	Niccolo Catini - Mirza Basic	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 ?LWLW
- Michael Vrbensky
ATP Challenger
16.03.25	Matteo Fondriest - Michael Vrbensky	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
13.03.25	Jan Kupcic - Michael Vrbensky	2:0 ✺
11.03.25	Nico Hipfl - Michael Vrbensky	0:2 ✺
19.02.25	Michael Vrbensky - Pablo Masjuan Ginel	0:2 ✺
12.02.25	Mathias Bourgue - Michael Vrbensky	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLWLL

Mirza Basic - Michael Vrbensky: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide