Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Sarreguemines, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 October 2025, Friday


	Nicolas Parizzia		Matt Ponchet

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	2.08	1.72
	1.98	1.72	Watch
	2	1.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.75)	1.72 ↓ (1.96)

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Nicolas Parizzia
46%

Matt Ponchet
54%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.5%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolas Parizzia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Nicolas Parizzia's form might have worsened.

Matt Ponchet has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Matt Ponchet's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nicolas Parizzia than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Nicolas Parizzia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Matt Ponchet than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Matt Ponchet, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Nicolas Parizzia - Matt Ponchet Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Parizzia is ranked ATP: 1199. Ponchet is ranked ATP: 1620.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Ponchet may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolas Parizzia
ITF Tournaments
23.10.25	Damian Wenger - Nicolas Parizzia	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Vincent Marysko - Nicolas Parizzia	1:2 ✺
15.10.25	Nicolas Parizzia - Axel Garcian	Canceled ✺
23.09.25	Nicolas Parizzia - Gabi Adrian Boitan	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Nicolas Parizzia - Thomas Faurel	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WW?LL
- Matt Ponchet
ITF Tournaments
23.10.25	Calvin Mueller - Matt Ponchet	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Matt Ponchet - Maxence Beauge	2:0 ✺
09.10.25	Robin Catry - Matt Ponchet	2:1 ✺
08.10.25	Damien Clerc - Matt Ponchet	0:2 ✺
10.09.25	Matt Ponchet - Timeo Trufelli	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 WWLWL

Nicolas Parizzia - Matt Ponchet: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide