Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Madrid, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 September 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Madrid 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Pavlo Tsitsipas		Lucca Helguera Casado

	1	2
	2.25	1.55
	2.27	1.58
	1.81	1.87	Watch
	2.16	1.63	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↓ (2.99)	1.66 ↑ (1.37)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavlo Tsitsipas
43.8%

Lucca Helguera Casado
56.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

31.4%

68.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

72%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavlo Tsitsipas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pavlo Tsitsipas's performance.

Lucca Helguera Casado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lucca Helguera Casado might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavlo Tsitsipas than the current prediction. (-15.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pavlo Tsitsipas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lucca Helguera Casado than the current prediction. (+15.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lucca Helguera Casado could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pavlo Tsitsipas - Lucca Helguera Casado Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tsitsipas is ranked ATP: 911. Helguera Casado is ranked ATP: 1080.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Helguera Casado may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Helguera Casado will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavlo Tsitsipas
ITF Tournaments
03.09.25	Pavlo Tsitsipas - Jose Dominguez Alonso	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
20.08.25	Moez Echargui - Pavlo Tsitsipas	2:1 ✺
19.08.25	Luca Castagnola - Pavlo Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
12.08.25	Pavlo Tsitsipas - Mats Rosenkranz	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
01.08.25	Pavlo Tsitsipas - Michael Agwi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLWLL
- Lucca Helguera Casado
ITF Tournaments
03.09.25	Lucca Helguera Casado - Mikel Martinez	2:1 ✺
25.08.25	Gerard Campana Lee - Lucca Helguera Casado	2:0 ✺
21.08.25	Ryan Nijboer - Lucca Helguera Casado	2:0 ✺
19.08.25	Lucca Helguera Casado - Carles Rojas	2:0 ✺
12.08.25	Yaroslav Demin - Lucca Helguera Casado	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLLWL

Pavlo Tsitsipas - Lucca Helguera Casado

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Pavlo Tsitsipas - Lucca Helguera Casado Predictions

Preview

Form

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