Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Porto - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday


	Petr Nesterov		Giorgio Tabacco

	1	2
			Watch
	1.55	2.25	Watch
	1.61	2.21	Watch
	1.51	2.55
	1.59	2.22	Watch
	1.55	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.43)	2.3 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Petr Nesterov
59.5%

Giorgio Tabacco
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.9%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Petr Nesterov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Petr Nesterov's form might have worsened.

Giorgio Tabacco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Giorgio Tabacco's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Petr Nesterov than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Petr Nesterov, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Giorgio Tabacco than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Giorgio Tabacco, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Preview

Nesterov is ranked ATP: 300., and Tabacco is ranked ATP: 733..

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Tabacco could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Nesterov holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Nesterov has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Petr Nesterov - the odds 1.43 are the expected chance of winning is 64.88%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Petr Nesterov
ATP Challenger
27.09.26	Petr Nesterov - Radu Albot	Canceled ✺
22.09.26	Carlos Taberner - Petr Nesterov	2:1 ✺
01.09.26	Petr Nesterov - Yanaki Milev	1:2 ✺
18.08.26	Petr Nesterov - Calvin Hemery	Canceled ✺
ITF Tournaments
12.08.26	Dimitris Sakellaridis - Petr Nesterov	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 ?LL?L
- Giorgio Tabacco
ITF Tournaments
24.09.26	Giorgio Tabacco - Finn Murgett	1:2 ✺
23.09.26	Georgii Kravchenko - Giorgio Tabacco	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Giorgio Tabacco - Fausto Tabacco	0:2 ✺
18.09.26	Giorgio Tabacco - John Echeverria	Echeverria J. Retired ✺
17.09.26	Giorgio Tabacco - Michael Agwi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 LWL?W

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