Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nottingham, grass - 1/16-finals

Date: 16 June 2025, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Nottingham 🌤️ ... 🟢 Grass


	Pierre-Hugues Herbert		Shintaro Mochizuki

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Pierre-Hugues Herbert
60.5%

Shintaro Mochizuki
39.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.3%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.8%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pierre-Hugues Herbert has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pierre-Hugues Herbert's form might have worsened.

Shintaro Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Shintaro Mochizuki's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pierre-Hugues Herbert than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Herbert is ranked ATP: 132. Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 178.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Mochizuki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Herbert will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pierre-Hugues Herbert
ATP Stuttgart
11.06.25	Ben Shelton - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:0 ✺
10.06.25	Damir Dzumhur - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	Dzumhur D. retired ✺
08.06.25	Li Tu - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	1:2 ✺
07.06.25	Maximilian Marterer - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	0:2 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
29.05.25	Joao Fonseca - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 L?WWL
- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
14.06.25	Jack Pinnington Jones - Shintaro Mochizuki	2:0 ✺
13.06.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Oliver Crawford	2:0 ✺
12.06.25	Johannus Monday - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:2 ✺
10.06.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Colton Smith	2:1 ✺
25.05.25	Shintaro Mochizuki - Marco Cecchinato	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWWWL

Pierre-Hugues Herbert - Shintaro Mochizuki