Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Santos - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 4 May 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Santos 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Rafael Tosetto		Pavlo Tsitsipas

	1	2
			Watch
	1.49	2.43	Watch
	1.63	2.37
	1.56	2.27	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.55)	2.31 ↓ (2.47)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Tosetto
59.7%

Pavlo Tsitsipas
40.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

61.5%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.7%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Tosetto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Pavlo Tsitsipas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rafael Tosetto than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavlo Tsitsipas than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Rafael Tosetto - Pavlo Tsitsipas Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.5 Sets - Tosetto (1.27) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tosetto (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tosetto is ranked ATP: 1076. Tsitsipas is ranked ATP: 1029.

The current form of both players is below expectations.

Tsitsipas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Tosetto could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Tosetto
ATP Challenger
12.04.26	Rafael Tosetto - Daniel Salazar	0:2 ✺
06.04.26	Rafael Tosetto - Conner Huertas Del Pino	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Jefferson Wendler Filho - Rafael Tosetto	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Lucio Ratti - Rafael Tosetto	Canceled ✺
24.03.26	Emilio Nava - Rafael Tosetto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLW?L
- Pavlo Tsitsipas
ITF Tournaments
28.04.26	Juan Sebastian Gomez - Pavlo Tsitsipas	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Victor Braga - Pavlo Tsitsipas	2:1 ✺
21.04.26	Pavlo Tsitsipas - Benjamin Torrealba	2:1 ✺
01.04.26	Pavlo Tsitsipas - Aaron Funk	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
09.03.26	Pavlo Tsitsipas - Paul Jubb	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LLWLL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavlo Tsitsipas
ITF Tournaments
29.10.26	Jan Sadzik - Pavlo Tsitsipas	✺

Rafael Tosetto - Pavlo Tsitsipas