Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Morelos - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday


	Samuel Heredia		Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros

	1	2
			Watch
	2.21	1.6
	2.2	1.7
	2.2	1.6	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.18	1.61	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.56)	1.62 ↑ (1.46)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Samuel Heredia
42.3%

Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

63.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

59.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Samuel Heredia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Samuel Heredia's performance.

Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Samuel Heredia than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Samuel Heredia - Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Heredia is ranked ATP: 759. Rubio Fierros is ranked ATP: 592.

In recent matches, Heredia has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Rubio Fierros is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Rubio Fierros could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Rubio Fierros will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Heredia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Samuel Heredia
ATP Challenger
15.03.26	Juan Sebastian Gomez - Samuel Heredia	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
27.02.26	Paul Jubb - Samuel Heredia	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Samuel Heredia - Millen Hurrion	2:0 ✺
25.02.26	Hiromasa Koyama - Samuel Heredia	0:2 ✺
17.02.26	Samuel Heredia - Sergio Callejon Hernando	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WLWWL
- Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros
ATP Challenger
15.03.26	Alan Sau Franco - Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros	1:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
27.02.26	Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros - Blaise Bicknell	0:2 ✺
26.02.26	Robert Strombachs - Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros	1:2 ✺
25.02.26	Billy Suarez - Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros	0:2 ✺
24.02.26	Juan Sebastian Osorio - Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
05.03.25	Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros - Samuel Heredia	2:1

Samuel Heredia - Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide