Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: St. Tropez, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 September 2026, Wednesday


	Thomas Faurel		Mark Lajal

	1	2
	5.00	1.17	Watch
	4.40	1.17
	4.50	1.18	Watch
	4.61	1.17	Watch
	5.90	1.15
	4.49	1.17	Watch
	4.25	1.18
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.74 ↑ (2.86)	1.17 ↓ (1.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thomas Faurel
19.8%

Mark Lajal
80.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

67.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.2%

65.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thomas Faurel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Thomas Faurel's form might have worsened.

Mark Lajal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mark Lajal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thomas Faurel than the current prediction. (+14.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Thomas Faurel, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mark Lajal than the current prediction. (-14.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mark Lajal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Thomas Faurel - Mark Lajal Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lajal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Faurel is ranked ATP: 340., and Lajal is ranked ATP: 143..

Faurel has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Lajal is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Faurel may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Lajal is considered the favorite to take the win.

These two players have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thomas Faurel
ATP Challenger
22.09.26	Hugo Grenier - Thomas Faurel	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
18.09.26	Thomas Faurel - Andreja Petrovic	1:2 ✺
17.09.26	Thomas Faurel - Yannis Batsabaken	2:0 ✺
15.09.26	Thomas Faurel - Adan Freire Da Silva	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
04.09.26	Dusan Obradovic - Thomas Faurel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLWWL
- Mark Lajal
ATP Challenger
21.09.26	David Goffin - Mark Lajal	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Titouan Droguet - Mark Lajal	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Mark Lajal - Daniel Masur	2:0 ✺
11.09.26	Robin Bertrand - Mark Lajal	0:2 ✺
10.09.26	Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg - Mark Lajal	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWWW

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