Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Milan - Qualification, clay - Final

Date: 29 June 2026, Monday


	Tommaso Compagnucci		Matthew Donald

	1	2
			Watch
	1.45	2.50
	1.53	2.35
	1.49	2.61
	1.47	2.5	Watch
	1.47	2.55	Watch
	1.49	2.45	Watch
	1.49	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.51)	2.48 ↑ (2.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommaso Compagnucci
62.6%

Matthew Donald
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommaso Compagnucci has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Matthew Donald has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommaso Compagnucci than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tommaso Compagnucci that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matthew Donald than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Matthew Donald could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tommaso Compagnucci - Matthew Donald Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 Games - Donald (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Donald (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Compagnucci is ranked ATP: 374. Donald is ranked ATP: 485.

Compagnucci is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Donald's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Compagnucci may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Compagnucci might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Tommaso Compagnucci - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 60.6%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommaso Compagnucci
ATP Challenger
28.06.26	Tommaso Compagnucci - Francesco Giuseppe Colasanto	2:0
25.06.26	Petr Nesterov - Tommaso Compagnucci	2:0 ✺
24.06.26	Tomasz Berkieta - Tommaso Compagnucci	0:2 ✺
22.06.26	Tommaso Compagnucci - Maxim Mrva	2:1 ✺
14.06.26	Tommaso Compagnucci - Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWWW
- Matthew Donald
ATP Challenger
28.06.26	Matthew Donald - Luca Potenza	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
26.06.26	Matthew Donald - Fausto Tabacco	0:2 ✺
25.06.26	Matthew Donald - Manuel Plunger	2:0 ✺
24.06.26	Matthew Donald - Daniele Rapagnetta	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.06.26	Buvaysar Gadamauri - Matthew Donald	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWWL

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