Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Milan - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 28 June 2026, Sunday


	Matthew Donald		Luca Potenza

	1	2
			Watch
	1.62	2.10
	1.66	2.08
	1.65	2.23
	1.62	2.15	Watch
	1.62	2.20	Watch
	1.64	2.14	Watch
	1.64	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.65)	2.15 ↑ (2.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Matthew Donald
56.8%

Luca Potenza
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.1%

39.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Matthew Donald has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Luca Potenza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Matthew Donald than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luca Potenza than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Matthew Donald - Luca Potenza Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Donald is ranked ATP: 485. Potenza is ranked ATP: 425.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Donald may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Donald is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Luca Potenza - the odds 2.08 are the expected chance of winning is 44.3%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Matthew Donald
ITF Tournaments
26.06.26	Matthew Donald - Fausto Tabacco	0:2 ✺
25.06.26	Matthew Donald - Manuel Plunger	2:0 ✺
24.06.26	Matthew Donald - Daniele Rapagnetta	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
07.06.26	Buvaysar Gadamauri - Matthew Donald	2:0 ✺
31.05.26	Matthew Donald - Francesco Forti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWWLL
- Luca Potenza
ATP Challenger
23.06.26	Elmer Moller - Luca Potenza	2:0 ✺
22.06.26	Luca Potenza - Kaito Uesugi	2:0 ✺
21.06.26	Luca Potenza - Matei Varbanciu	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
17.06.26	Luca Potenza - Fausto Tabacco	0:2 ✺
16.06.26	Luca Potenza - Giovanni Oradini	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWLW

Matthew Donald - Luca Potenza: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide