Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Wuning 2, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 1 August 2025, Friday


	Yuta Kikuchi		Timofei Derepasko

	1	2
	2.25	1.55
	2.19	1.65
	1.31	3.09	Watch
	2.5	1.5
	2.24	1.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.5)	1.88 ↑ (1.51)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yuta Kikuchi
47.2%

Timofei Derepasko
52.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

62.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

65.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yuta Kikuchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Yuta Kikuchi's performance.

Timofei Derepasko has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Timofei Derepasko might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yuta Kikuchi than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Yuta Kikuchi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Timofei Derepasko than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Timofei Derepasko could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Kikuchi is ranked ATP: 798. Derepasko is ranked ATP: 952.

Kikuchi has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Derepasko is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Derepasko may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Derepasko could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Derepasko will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yuta Kikuchi
ITF Tournaments
31.07.25	Yuta Kikuchi - Chase Ferguson	2:0 ✺
30.07.25	Yuta Kikuchi - Boxiong Zhang	2:0 ✺
09.07.25	Woobin Shin - Yuta Kikuchi	2:0 ✺
05.06.25	Yuki Mochizuki - Yuta Kikuchi	2:0 ✺
05.06.25	Yuta Kikuchi - Hoyoung Roh	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLLW
- Timofei Derepasko
ITF Tournaments
31.07.25	Qiulin Wang - Timofei Derepasko	0:2 ✺
23.07.25	Timofei Derepasko - Fnu Nidunjianzan	0:2 ✺
22.07.25	Timofei Derepasko - Shaoyun Liu	2:0 ✺
15.06.25	Timofei Derepasko - Samuel Heredia	2:0 ✺
14.06.25	Timofei Derepasko - Semen Pankin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WLWWW

Yuta Kikuchi - Timofei Derepasko: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide