Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M15 Wuning 4, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 2 July 2026, Thursday


	Yuta Tomida		Chase Ferguson

	1	2
	2.10	1.62
	2.12	1.63
	2.23	1.67
	2.17	1.6	Watch
	2.20	1.65
	2.14	1.64	Watch
	1.75	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↑ (1.75)	1.68 ↓ (1.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yuta Tomida
44.5%

Chase Ferguson
55.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

47%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.7%

49.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yuta Tomida has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Yuta Tomida's form might have worsened.

Chase Ferguson has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chase Ferguson's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Yuta Tomida than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Yuta Tomida, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chase Ferguson than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chase Ferguson, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Yuta Tomida - Chase Ferguson Predictions

Users Predictions: Chase Ferguson will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Tomida is ranked ATP: 994. Ferguson is ranked ATP: 675.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Tomida may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yuta Tomida
ITF Tournaments
01.07.26	Yuta Tomida - Xing Dao Chen	2:0 ✺
23.06.26	Yuta Tomida - Moerani Bouzige	0:2 ✺
27.05.26	Sora Fukuda - Yuta Tomida	2:1 ✺
26.05.26	Takumi Katsuda - Yuta Tomida	0:2 ✺
21.05.26	Yuta Tomida - Kousuke Ogura	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLLWL
- Chase Ferguson
ITF Tournaments
01.07.26	Noritaka Koizumi - Chase Ferguson	0:2 ✺
25.06.26	Chase Ferguson - Fanming Meng	0:2 ✺
23.06.26	Chase Ferguson - Taiyo Yamanaka	2:1 ✺
16.06.26	Chase Ferguson - Taiyo Yamanaka	1:2 ✺
09.06.26	Chase Ferguson - Hanyi Liu	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWLL

Yuta Tomida - Chase Ferguson: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide