Match Info

Nations League Women

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Osaka Municipal Central Gymnasium (Osaka) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Brazil	07:20	SporTV 2
Bulgaria	13:20	Max Sport 2
Croatia	12:20	SportKlub 4
Poland	12:20	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Extra 2
Serbia	12:20	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	12:20	SportKlub 4
Turkey	13:20	S Sport
Ukraine	13:20	Suspilne Sport


	Japan W		Poland W

	1	2
	1.62	2.2
	1.55	2.25	Watch
	1.56	2.45
	1.57	2.34	Watch
	1.55	2.43
	1.6	2.21	Watch
	1.58	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.61)	2.31 ↑ (2.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 181.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Japan W
59.5%

Poland W
40.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.5%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56%

44%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Japan W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Poland W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Japan W than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Poland W than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
27.3%	0%	72.7%

Japan W - Poland W Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Japan will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). Poland will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Poland: 46.4% – 99%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups


26. Akimoto M.	24. Damaske P.
12. Fukudome S.	21. Grabka A.
4. Ishikawa M. (C)	95. Jurczyk M.
9. Iwasawa M.	32. Koput M.
22. Kitamado A.	14. Lampkowska M.
8. Kojima M.	18. Lysiak J.
7. Sakae E.	6. Obiala A.
5. Sato Y.	19. Orzol J.
6. Seki N.	8. Piasecka J.
16. Shigihara H.	16. Stefanik S.
3. Shimamura H.	3. Stysiak M.
1. Wada Y.	1. Szczurowska J.
11. Yamada N.	12. Szczyglowska A. (C)
13. Yamaguchi M.	26. Wenerska K.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Japan won 2.

Japan is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Poland has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Japan may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Japan could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Japan won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:25. (average 1.8:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Japan W volleyball
Nations League Volleyball Women
11.07.26	Japan W - Turkey W	1:3 ✺
09.07.26	Japan W - Thailand W	3:1 ✺
08.07.26	Japan W - Brazil W	1:3 ✺
21.06.26	Japan W - Italy W	0:3 ✺
20.06.26	Japan W - Dominican Republic W	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LWLLL
- Poland W volleyball
Nations League Volleyball Women
10.07.26	Poland W - Brazil W	1:3 ✺
09.07.26	USA W - Poland W	2:3 ✺
07.07.26	Turkey W - Poland W	3:1 ✺
21.06.26	Canada W - Poland W	3:2 ✺
20.06.26	Netherlands W - Poland W	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Nations League Volleyball Women
27.07.25	Poland W - Japan W	3:1
12.07.25	Japan W - Poland W	3:1
Olympic Games - Volleyball Women
28.07.24	Poland W - Japan W	3:1
Nations League Volleyball Women
19.05.24	Poland W - Japan W	3:0
14.06.22	Japan W - Poland W	3:0
08.06.21	Japan W - Poland W	3:2
18.06.19	Japan W - Poland W	1:3

Japan W - Poland W