Match Info

Nations League Women - Play Offs - 3rd place

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Atlas Arena (Lodz)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Poland	Polsat Sport 1


	Poland W		Japan W

	1	2
	2	1.73
	1.9	1.72
	1.86	1.96
	1.44	2.68	Watch
	1.85	1.85
	1.95	1.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.11)	1.96 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 182.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Poland W
51.6%

Japan W
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.4%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

60.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Poland W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Poland W's performance.

Japan W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Japan W might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Poland W than the current prediction. (-12.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Poland W that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Japan W than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Japan W could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	0%	55.6%

Poland W - Japan W Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Poland will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Japan will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Japan: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Poland (votes: 2 - 40%). Japan (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Lineups


19. Centka W.	33. Akimoto M.
15. Czyrnianska M.	2. Araki A.
24. Damaske P.	12. Fukudome S.
21. Grabka A.	4. Ishikawa M. (C)
1. Gryka A.	19. Iwasawa M.
95. Jurczyk M.	30. Kitamado A.
5. Korneluk A. (C)	8. Kojima M.
11. Lukasik M.	15. Miyabe A.
18. Lysiak J.	22. Nakagawa T.
8. Piasecka J.	26. Sato Y.
17. Smarzek M.	6. Seki N.
3. Stysiak M.	3. Shimamura H.
12. Szczyglowska A.	13. Wada Y.
26. Wenerska K.	11. Yamada N.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Poland won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Poland may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Poland won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 22:21. (average 2:1.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Poland W volleyball
Nations League Volleyball Women
26.07.25	Italy W - Poland W	3:0 ✺
23.07.25	Poland W - China W	3:2 ✺
Friendly International Volleyball Women
19.07.25	Poland W - China W	3:1 ✺
Nations League Volleyball Women
13.07.25	Bulgaria W - Poland W	0:3 ✺
12.07.25	Japan W - Poland W	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWWWL
- Japan W volleyball
Nations League Volleyball Women
26.07.25	Brazil W - Japan W	3:2 ✺
24.07.25	Japan W - Turkey W	3:2 ✺
13.07.25	Japan W - Brazil W	0:3 ✺
12.07.25	Japan W - Poland W	3:1 ✺
10.07.25	South Korea W - Japan W	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Nations League Volleyball Women
12.07.25	Japan W - Poland W	3:1
Olympic Games - Volleyball Women
28.07.24	Poland W - Japan W	3:1
Nations League Volleyball Women
19.05.24	Poland W - Japan W	3:0
14.06.22	Japan W - Poland W	3:0
08.06.21	Japan W - Poland W	3:2
18.06.19	Japan W - Poland W	1:3
Montreux Masters Women
18.05.19	Poland W - Japan W	3:1

Poland W - Japan W: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide