Match Info

European Championship - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 23 January 2026, Friday


	Serbia		Italy

	1	X	2
	1.45	7.9	3.78
	1.44	6.8	3.8	Watch
	1.43	6.9	3.98
	1.45	7	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 (1.44)	7.15 (7.15)	3.84 (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 23.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serbia
63.4%

Draw
12.8%

Italy
23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

13.1%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Serbia have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Italy have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serbia than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Italy than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Serbia - Italy Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Serbia will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Italy will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Serbia (votes: 1 - 50%). Italy (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 14:11

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Serbia won 1.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

In this match, Serbia is considered a favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Serbia won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 160:139. (average 10:8.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Serbia water polo
European Championship Water Polo
20.01.26	Serbia - Montenegro	13:15 ✺
18.01.26	Hungary - Serbia	14:15 ✺
16.01.26	France - Serbia	10:14 ✺
14.01.26	Israel - Serbia	9:19
12.01.26	Spain - Serbia	11:12 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 LWWWW
- Italy water polo
European Championship Water Polo
21.01.26	Italy - Croatia	13:10 ✺
19.01.26	Greece - Italy	15:13 ✺
17.01.26	Georgia - Italy	14:16 ✺
15.01.26	Romania - Italy	6:20 ✺
13.01.26	Slovakia - Italy	12:17
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

World Championship Water Polo
14.07.25	Italy - Serbia	17:16 penalties
25.07.23	Italy - Serbia	14:15 penalties
Friendly International Water Polo
20.08.22	Serbia - Italy	9:9
10.08.22	Italy - Serbia	12:10
World League Water Polo
25.07.22	Serbia - Italy	6:10
30.04.22	Italy - Serbia	9:12
Olympic Games - Water polo
04.08.21	Italy - Serbia	6:10

Serbia - Italy: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide