Match Info

NFL - Round 4

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Finland	Ruutu+
France	beIN Sports MAX 5
Germany	RTL
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 9
Hungary	Arena 4
Portugal	DAZN 2
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
Spain	DAZN Espana
Turkey	S Sport+
United-kingdom	DAZN, Sky Sports Main Event
World	NFL Game Pass


	Kansas City Chiefs		Baltimore Ravens

	1	2
	2.25	1.67	Watch
	2.2	1.64
	2.27	1.71
	2.81	1.41	Watch
	2.25	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↑ (2.25)	1.62 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 48.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kansas City Chiefs
40.7%

Baltimore Ravens
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

57.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

60.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kansas City Chiefs has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Baltimore Ravens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kansas City Chiefs than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baltimore Ravens than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	0%	53.8%

Kansas City Chiefs - Baltimore Ravens Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Kansas City will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Baltimore will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Baltimore: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Kansas City (votes: 1 - 50%). Baltimore (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5, OT - Baltimore (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Kansas City (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Baltimore (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:26

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (3 - 7)
05:25, Hill J. (Touchdown),
05:25, Loop T. (Extra Point),
09:20, Butker H. (Field Goal),
2nd Quarter (17 - 3)
04:57, Butker H. (Field Goal),
11:00, Smith-Schuster J. (Touchdown),
11:00, Butker H. (Extra Point),
13:19, Pacheco I. (Touchdown),
13:19, Butker H. (Extra Point),
14:29, Butker H. (Missed Field Goal),
15:00, Loop T. (Field Goal),
3rd Quarter (10 - 3)
03:09, Thornton T. (Touchdown),
03:09, Butker H. (Extra Point),
07:34, Loop T. (Field Goal),
13:20, Butker H. (Field Goal),
4th Quarter (7 - 7)
01:15, Brown M. (Touchdown),
01:15, Butker H. (Extra Point),
13:04, Hill J. (Touchdown),
13:04, Loop T. (Extra Point),

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kansas City won 4.

Kansas City has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Baltimore's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Baltimore might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Kansas City won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 213:161. (average 26.6:20.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kansas City won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 93:81. (average 23.3:20.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kansas City Chiefs
NFL
21.09.25	New York Giants - Kansas City Chiefs	9:22 ✺
14.09.25	Kansas City Chiefs - Philadelphia Eagles	17:20 ✺
05.09.25	Los Angeles Chargers - Kansas City Chiefs	27:21 ✺
22.08.25	Kansas City Chiefs - Chicago Bears	27:29 ✺
15.08.25	Seattle Seahawks - Kansas City Chiefs	33:16 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 WLLLL
- Baltimore Ravens
NFL
22.09.25	Baltimore Ravens - Detroit Lions	30:38 ✺
14.09.25	Baltimore Ravens - Cleveland Browns	41:17 ✺
07.09.25	Buffalo Bills - Baltimore Ravens	41:40 ✺
23.08.25	Washington Commanders - Baltimore Ravens	3:30 ✺
16.08.25	Dallas Cowboys - Baltimore Ravens	13:31 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

NFL
05.09.24	Kansas City Chiefs - Baltimore Ravens	27:20
28.01.24	Baltimore Ravens - Kansas City Chiefs	10:17
19.09.21	Baltimore Ravens - Kansas City Chiefs	36:35
28.09.20	Baltimore Ravens - Kansas City Chiefs	20:34
22.09.19	Kansas City Chiefs - Baltimore Ravens	33:28
09.12.18	Kansas City Chiefs - Baltimore Ravens	27:24 OT
20.12.15	Baltimore Ravens - Kansas City Chiefs	14:34

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