Match Info

VFL - Round 15

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Swinburne Centre (Melbourne)


	Richmond Tigers 2		Geelong Cats 2

	1	2
	1.59	2.18
	1.64	2.23
	1.64	2.22
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.64)	2.21 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Richmond Tigers 2
57.7%

Geelong Cats 2
42.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

57.5%

42.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

44.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Richmond Tigers 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Geelong Cats 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Richmond Tigers 2 than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Cats 2 than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Richmond Tigers 2 - Geelong Cats 2 Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +7.5 Points - Geelong Cats 2 (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +7.5 Points, OT - Geelong Cats 2 (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Geelong Cats 2 (votes: 2 - 100%).

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (12 - 28)
2nd Quarter (19 - 28)
3rd Quarter (26 - 19)
4th Quarter (31 - 8)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Richmond 2 won 3.

Richmond 2 is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Geelong Cats 2's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Geelong Cats 2 may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Richmond 2 could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Richmond 2 will win today's game, with odds of 1.62.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Richmond 2 won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 966:860. (average 87.8:78.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Richmond 2 won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 470:369. (average 94:73.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Richmond Tigers 2
VFL
28.06.25	Northern Bullants - Richmond Tigers 2	38:96 ✺
21.06.25	Footscray - Richmond Tigers 2	90:45 ✺
06.06.25	Richmond Tigers 2 - Sydney Swans 2	64:59 ✺
30.05.25	Greater Western Sydney 2 - Richmond Tigers 2	80:92 ✺
24.05.25	Richmond Tigers 2 - Essendon Bombers 2	74:52 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLWWW
- Geelong Cats 2
VFL
20.06.25	Geelong Cats 2 - Brisbane Lions 2	85:117 ✺
13.06.25	Werribee - Geelong Cats 2	79:81 ✺
07.06.25	Geelong Cats 2 - Gold Coast Suns 2	72:69 ✺
01.06.25	Williamstown - Geelong Cats 2	74:48 ✺
23.05.25	Footscray - Geelong Cats 2	94:71 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

VFL
01.06.24	Geelong Cats 2 - Richmond Tigers 2	77:60
12.05.23	Richmond Tigers 2 - Geelong Cats 2	75:75
25.06.22	Geelong Cats 2 - Richmond Tigers 2	89:103
07.06.19	Richmond Tigers 2 - Geelong Cats 2	86:63
05.04.19	Geelong Cats 2 - Richmond Tigers 2	83:97
04.08.18	Geelong Cats 2 - Richmond Tigers 2	109:57
12.08.17	Geelong Cats 2 - Richmond Tigers 2	84:77

Richmond Tigers 2 - Geelong Cats 2: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide