Match Info

Euroleague - Play Offs - Final

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Zalgirio Arena (Kaunas)

Referee: Cortes C. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Europe	Go3 Baltic Euroleague
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Israel	Sport 5
Russia	Okko Sport
Turkey	S Sport+
World	EuroLeague TV


	Žalgiris Kaunas		Fenerbahçe

	1	2
	1.79	1.86	Watch
	1.88	1.92
	1.89	1.96
	1.85	1.95
	1.91	1.91
	1.87	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↑ (1.81)	1.93 ↓ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 161.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Žalgiris Kaunas
50.9%

Fenerbahçe
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.7%

47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Žalgiris Kaunas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Žalgiris Kaunas than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.7%	0%	32.3%

Žalgiris Kaunas - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Žalgiris will win (votes: 21 - 70%). Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 9 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Žalgiris: 53.6% – 86.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Žalgiris Kaunas will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 82:82

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Butkevicius A.	13. Biberovic T.
3. Francisco S.	92. Birch K.
10. Tubelis A.	20. Hall D.
1. Williams-Goss N.	8. Horton-Tucker T.
7. Wright M.	4. Melli N.
Substitutes
15. Birutis L.	2. Baldwin W.
8. Brazdeikis I.	17. Bitim O.
9. Giedraitis D.	11. Boston B.
12. Lo M.	50. Colson B.
91. Sirvydis D.	12. De Colo N.
14. Sleva D.	18. Jantunen M.
92. Ulanovas E.	30. Silva C.
Coaches
. Masiulis T.	. Jasikevicius S.

Preview

Fenerbahce leads series 2-1. Fourth leg.

Fenerbahçe is Qualified for Euroleague (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris won 3.

In recent matches, Žalgiris has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Fenerbahçe is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1557:1583. (average 77.9:79.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Žalgiris won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 738:672. (average 82:74.7).

Outrights of Euroleague for now

Fenerbahce: 10.67% Zalgiris Kaunas: 3.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	L
4	Fenerbahce	4	3	1	328:302
7	Zalgiris Kaunas	4	2	2	340:333

Last Results with these Odds

Fenerbahçe - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 47.26%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Žalgiris Kaunas
Euroleague
06.05.26	Žalgiris Kaunas - Fenerbahçe	81:78 ✺
30.04.26	Fenerbahçe - Žalgiris Kaunas	86:74 ✺
28.04.26	Fenerbahçe - Žalgiris Kaunas	89:78 ✺
Lietuvos Krepsinio Lyga
25.04.26	Šiauliai - Žalgiris Kaunas	78:91 ✺
22.04.26	Žalgiris Kaunas - Gargždai	85:77 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLLWW
- Fenerbahçe Basketball
Euroleague
06.05.26	Žalgiris Kaunas - Fenerbahçe	81:78 ✺
30.04.26	Fenerbahçe - Žalgiris Kaunas	86:74 ✺
28.04.26	Fenerbahçe - Žalgiris Kaunas	89:78 ✺
Turkish Basketball Super Ligi
24.04.26	Körfez - Fenerbahçe	78:82 ✺
19.04.26	Fenerbahçe - Trabzonspor	93:90 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Euroleague
06.05.26	Žalgiris Kaunas - Fenerbahçe	81:78
30.04.26	Fenerbahçe - Žalgiris Kaunas	86:74
28.04.26	Fenerbahçe - Žalgiris Kaunas	89:78
27.03.26	Fenerbahçe - Žalgiris Kaunas	82:92
03.10.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Fenerbahçe	84:81
17.01.25	Fenerbahçe - Žalgiris Kaunas	98:86
15.11.24	Žalgiris Kaunas - Fenerbahçe	65:70

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