Match Info

AdmiralBet ABA League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 May 2026, Thursday

Location: Beogradska arena (Belgrade)

Referee: Dragojevic I. (Mne)


	Crvena Zvezda		Partizan Belgrade

	1	2
	1.44	2.54
	1.32	3.15
	1.39	3.32
	1.32	3.1	Watch
	1.33	3
	1.37	3.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.64)	3.04 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 169.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Crvena Zvezda
69.1%

Partizan Belgrade
30.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

45.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

40.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Crvena Zvezda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Crvena Zvezda's performance.

Partizan Belgrade has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Partizan Belgrade might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crvena Zvezda than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Crvena Zvezda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Partizan Belgrade than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Partizan Belgrade could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Crvena Zvezda - Partizan Belgrade Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 170, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Crvena Zvezda will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 88:82

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Bolomboy J.	17. Bonga I.
13. Dobric O.	12. Brown S.
0. Miller-McIntyre C.	24. Fernando B.
95. Moneke C.	1. Jones C.
33. Nwora J.	5. Osetkowski D.
Substitutes
6. Butler J.	8. Bosnjakovic M.
11. Carter T.	33. Calathes N.
7. Davidovac D.	23. Jekiri T.
15. Izundu E.	11. Pokusevski A.
12. Kalinic N.	13. Radanov A.
37. Ojeleye S.	4. Washington D.
14. Rivero J.
Coaches
. Obradovic S.	. Penarroya J.

Preview

Partizan Mozzart Bet leads series 1-0. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Crvena Zvezda won 1.

Crvena Zvezda has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Partizan is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Partizan may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Crvena Zvezda will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Partizan will win today's game, with odds of 2.66.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Crvena Zvezda won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1601:1599. (average 80.1:80).

Including home matches between the teams, Crvena Zvezda won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 952:921. (average 86.5:83.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Partizan Belgrade - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 45.05%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KK Crvena Zvezda
Adriatic League
18.05.26	Partizan Belgrade - Crvena Zvezda	100:94 ✺
15.05.26	Crvena Zvezda - Cedevita Olimpija	95:86 ✺
12.05.26	Cedevita Olimpija - Crvena Zvezda	92:86 ✺
07.05.26	Crvena Zvezda - Cedevita Olimpija	101:92 ✺
Serbian Superleague Basketball
03.05.26	Crvena Zvezda - Zlatibor Čajetina	116:62 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLWW
- Partizan Belgrade Basketball
Adriatic League
18.05.26	Partizan Belgrade - Crvena Zvezda	100:94 ✺
10.05.26	Bosna - Partizan Belgrade	73:87 ✺
06.05.26	Partizan Belgrade - Bosna	81:73 ✺
Serbian Superleague Basketball
02.05.26	Sloboda Užice - Partizan Belgrade	55:63 ✺
30.04.26	Partizan Belgrade - Sloboda Užice	103:77 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Adriatic League
18.05.26	Partizan Belgrade - Crvena Zvezda	100:94
19.04.26	Partizan Belgrade - Crvena Zvezda	81:74
Euroleague
02.04.26	Crvena Zvezda - Partizan Belgrade	82:89
Adriatic League
22.03.26	Crvena Zvezda - Partizan Belgrade	100:96
Euroleague
12.12.25	Partizan Belgrade - Crvena Zvezda	79:76
Adriatic League
21.04.25	Partizan Belgrade - Crvena Zvezda	85:77
Serbian Korac Cup
15.02.25	Crvena Zvezda - Partizan Belgrade	89:83 OT

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