Match Info

Euroleague - Round 3

Date: 10 October 2025, Friday

Location: Ülker Sports Arena (Istanbul)

Referee: Thepenier H. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	SKWeek App
Germany	Magenta Sport
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Israel	Sport 5
Poland	Polsat Sport Fight
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
Turkey	S Sport+
World	EuroLeague TV


	Fenerbahçe		Crvena Zvezda

	1	2
	1.2	4.75	Watch
	1.2	4.9
	1.21	4.65
	1.21	4.79	Watch
	1.32	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.37)	4.48 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 165.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-10)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
78.5%

Crvena Zvezda
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.6%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.4%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fenerbahçe's performance.

Crvena Zvezda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Crvena Zvezda might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fenerbahçe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crvena Zvezda than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Crvena Zvezda could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	0%	15.8%

Fenerbahçe - Crvena Zvezda Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 158, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +9.5, OT - Crvena Zvezda (1.93) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fenerbahçe will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 15 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Crvena Zvezda (votes: 4 - 26.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 88:78

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Colson B.	12. Kalinic N.
18. Jantunen M.	20. Motiejunas D.
92. Birch K.	95. Moneke C.
20. Hall D.	11. Carter T.
8. Horton-Tucker T.	0. Miller-McIntyre C.
Substitutes
2. Baldwin W.	7. Davidovac D.
13. Biberovic T.	15. Izundu E.
1. Birsen J.	2. Miljenovic S.
17. Bitim O.	33. Nwora J.
10. Mahmutoglu M.	37. Ojeleye S.
4. Melli N.	99. Yago
3. Wilbekin S.
Coaches
. Jasikevicius S.	. Tomovic T.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fenerbahçe won 1.

Fenerbahçe has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Crvena Zvezda has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fenerbahçe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fenerbahçe is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fenerbahçe won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 1497:1439. (average 74.9:72).

Including home matches between the teams, Fenerbahçe won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 817:754. (average 74.3:68.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe Basketball
Turkish Basketball Super Ligi
06.10.25	Fenerbahçe - Petkim Spor	105:83 ✺
Euroleague
03.10.25	Žalgiris Kaunas - Fenerbahçe	84:81 ✺
01.10.25	Fenerbahçe - Paris	96:77 ✺
Turkish Basketball Super Ligi
27.09.25	Tofaş - Fenerbahçe	80:78 ✺
Turkish Super Cup Basketball
24.09.25	Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş	85:83 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WLWLW
- KK Crvena Zvezda
Adriatic League
06.10.25	Crvena Zvezda - KK Zadar	79:85 ✺
Euroleague
02.10.25	Bayern München - Crvena Zvezda	97:88 ✺
30.09.25	Crvena Zvezda - Olimpia Milano	82:92 ✺
VTB Super Cup
25.09.25	Dubai - Crvena Zvezda	80:82 ✺
24.09.25	Crvena Zvezda - CSKA Moscow	67:89 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Basketball
19.09.25	Fenerbahçe - Crvena Zvezda	67:77
Euroleague
15.01.25	Crvena Zvezda - Fenerbahçe	91:96
15.10.24	Fenerbahçe - Crvena Zvezda	57:76
02.01.24	Fenerbahçe - Crvena Zvezda	76:85
14.11.23	Crvena Zvezda - Fenerbahçe	87:56
13.04.23	Crvena Zvezda - Fenerbahçe	91:89 OT
10.11.22	Fenerbahçe - Crvena Zvezda	93:79

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