Match Info

NKL - Winners stage

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Telsiu sporto arena (Telsiai)


	Mažeikiai		Kėdainiai

	1	2
			Watch
	1.44	2.48	Watch
	1.41	2.72
	1.45	2.51	Watch
	1.44	2.5
	1.47	2.5
	1.3	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.44)	2.55 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 169.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mažeikiai
64.3%

Kėdainiai
35.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.9%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

45.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mažeikiai has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Kėdainiai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mažeikiai than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mažeikiai that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kėdainiai than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kėdainiai could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mažeikiai - Kėdainiai Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 88:83

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mokseckas G. (C)	5. Danielius L. (C)
12. Motuzas M.	9. Kelmelis A.
14. Narusevicius E.	15. Lukosius I.
3. Neal N.	4. Semaska P.
4. Young C. K.	37. Uzas R.
Substitutes
2. Juodis G.	17. Bimba L.
13. Karasov P.	21. Gvezdauskas D.
5. Marquett Epps D.	44. Kuprijanovas M.
15. Mickus A.	8. Malek A.
31. Rimsa T.	30. Zilinskas A.
8. Rubinas D.
7. Stropus J.
Coaches
. Kiltinavicius M.	. Butkus G.

Preview

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Mažeikiai is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Mažeikiai won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 163:177. (average 81.5:88.5).

Including home match between the teams, Mažeikiai won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 83:84.

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
13	Mazeikiai	3	1	2	217:241	1
14	Kedainiai BC	3	1	2	237:281	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BC Mažeikiai
Lietuvos NKL
19.02.26	Kauno Žalgiris-2 - Mažeikiai	102:74 ✺
07.02.26	Mažeikiai - Šilutė	102:83 ✺
03.02.26	Plunges Olimpas - Mažeikiai	79:86 ✺
31.01.26	Mažeikiai - Jurbarkas-Karys	84:83 ✺
29.01.26	Olimpas Palanga - Mažeikiai	73:80 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWWW
- Kėdainių BC
Lietuvos NKL
19.02.26	Kėdainiai - Perlas Vilkaviškis	80:69 ✺
10.02.26	Vilniaus Stekas - Kėdainiai	70:81 ✺
07.02.26	Kėdainiai - Plunges Olimpas	85:80 ✺
05.02.26	Perlas Vilkaviškis - Kėdainiai	77:66 ✺
31.01.26	Kėdainiai - Šilutė	89:85 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Lietuvos NKL
15.01.26	Mažeikiai - Kėdainiai	83:84
20.11.25	Kėdainiai - Mažeikiai	93:80

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