Match Info

Proliga - Round 12

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Pavilhão Mun. Nortecoope (Maia)


	Maia		Lusitânia

	1	2
	1.32	2.85
	1.42	2.63
	1.4	2.7
	1.4	2.73
	1.45	2.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.48)	2.7 ↑ (2.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 154.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Maia
65.9%

Lusitânia
34.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.2%

39.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Maia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

Lusitânia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maia than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Maia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lusitânia could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Maia - Lusitânia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 80:74

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Caetano F.	22. Cipalla K.
9. Heinz W.	11. Eyisi O.
72. Lisboa T.	10. Freitas M. (C)
4. Magalhaes M. (C)	97. Silva S.
10. Tomley M.	3. Ugwuakazi O.
Substitutes
35. Carvalho A.	17. Almeida B.
20. Ferreira R.	4. Alves S.
28. Figueiredo T.	57. Mendes R.
13. Guerreiro J.	7. Neves J.
47. Pontes I.	14. Pavao M.
17. Skoric G.	99. Tavares D.
5. Valgode A.
Coaches
. Rodrigues N.	. Avila J.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maia won 2.

Maia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Lusitânia has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Maia might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Maia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1132:1213. (average 75.5:80.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Maia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 467:496. (average 77.8:82.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Maia Basket
Portuguese Proliga Basketball
13.12.25	Maia - Sampaense	79:68 ✺
08.12.25	Povoa - Maia	105:73 ✺
07.12.25	Académica Coimbra - Maia	59:88 ✺
22.11.25	Maia - Illiabum	71:64 ✺
15.11.25	Maia - Alianca Sangalhos	110:66 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WLWWW
- SC Lusitânia Basketball
Portuguese Proliga Basketball
13.12.25	Académica Coimbra - Lusitânia	71:100 ✺
08.12.25	Alianca Sangalhos - Lusitânia	74:100 ✺
07.12.25	Lusitânia - Illiabum	64:65 ✺
30.11.25	Casino Ginásio - Lusitânia	81:73 ✺
22.11.25	Lusitânia - Sampaense	87:46 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Proliga Basketball
31.10.25	Lusitânia - Maia	69:65
16.03.25	Maia - Lusitânia	93:86
25.01.25	Lusitânia - Maia	82:69
Taca de Portugal Basketball
09.12.23	Lusitânia - Maia	76:82
Portuguese LPB
03.04.21	Lusitânia - Maia	93:67
03.01.21	Maia - Lusitânia	65:76
07.12.19	Lusitânia - Maia	87:90

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