Match Info

PBA Commissioner's Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Meralco Bolts		Magnolia Hotshots

	1	2
			Watch
	1.6	2.18	Watch
	1.54	2.24
	1.52	2.46	Watch
	1.53	2.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.77)	2.33 ↑ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 187.25

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Meralco Bolts
60.1%

Magnolia Hotshots
39.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52.9%

47.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Meralco Bolts has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Meralco Bolts's performance.

Magnolia Hotshots has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Magnolia Hotshots might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Meralco Bolts than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Magnolia Hotshots than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Meralco Bolts - Magnolia Hotshots Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Meralco Bolts will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Magnolia Hotshots will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Meralco Bolts: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Meralco Bolts (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 92:97

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Preview

Series tied 1-1. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Meralco Bolts won 1.

Recent performances by Meralco Bolts have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Magnolia Hotshots is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Magnolia Hotshots may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Meralco Bolts won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1749:1825. (average 87.5:91.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Meralco Bolts won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 953:992. (average 86.6:90.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Meralco Bolts
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
13.05.26	Magnolia Hotshots - Meralco Bolts	95:89 ✺
10.05.26	Meralco Bolts - Magnolia Hotshots	76:93 ✺
08.05.26	Terrafirma Dyip - Meralco Bolts	69:113 ✺
03.05.26	Meralco Bolts - Blackwater Bossing	108:93 ✺
01.05.26	Barangay Ginebra San Miguel - Meralco Bolts	91:112 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLWWW
- Magnolia Hotshots
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
13.05.26	Magnolia Hotshots - Meralco Bolts	95:89 ✺
10.05.26	Meralco Bolts - Magnolia Hotshots	76:93 ✺
05.05.26	TNT Tropang 5G - Magnolia Hotshots	94:106 ✺
29.04.26	Magnolia Hotshots - Titan Ultra Giant Risers	135:98 ✺
25.04.26	Magnolia Hotshots - Rain or Shine Elasto Painters	82:91 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Philippines - Commissioners Cup
13.05.26	Magnolia Hotshots - Meralco Bolts	95:89
10.05.26	Meralco Bolts - Magnolia Hotshots	76:93
Philippines Cup
19.10.25	Meralco Bolts - Magnolia Hotshots	78:76
14.05.25	Meralco Bolts - Magnolia Hotshots	92:117
Philippines - Commissioners Cup
31.01.25	Meralco Bolts - Magnolia Hotshots	92:129
Philippines - Governors Cup
07.09.24	Meralco Bolts - Magnolia Hotshots	82:74
18.08.24	Meralco Bolts - Magnolia Hotshots	99:94

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Magnolia Hotshots
Philippines - Governors Cup
31.10.26	Magnolia Hotshots - TNT Tropang 5G	✺

Meralco Bolts - Magnolia Hotshots