Match Info

Olympic Games Women - Qualification - Preliminary - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	04:30	DAZN
Finland	05:30	DAZN
Norway	04:30	DAZN
Sweden	04:30	DAZN
United Kingdom	03:30	DAZN


	Mexico W		Brazil W

	1	2
	1.65	2.25
	1.63	2.05	Watch
	1.63	2.19
	1.67	2.07	Watch
	1.59	2.14
	1.66	2.16
	1.62	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (2.21)	2.13 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 123.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mexico W
56.6%

Brazil W
43.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.2%

58.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

51%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mexico W has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mexico W's performance.

Brazil W has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brazil W might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mexico W than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mexico W that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brazil W than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brazil W could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Mexico W - Brazil W Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Mexico will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 63:61

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Gil M.	5. Albiero Santo Andre
2. Jeffreis A.	12. Aline SESI Araraquara
14. Lagunas A. Libelulas	11. De Oliveira Sampaio
22. Ramirez H. Estrellas	77. Iza Sangalli Sampaio
6. Valenzuela M.	8. Nascimento I. Uniao Sportiva
Substitutes
29. Carrasco A.	24. Alana Cerrado
18. Chavez M.	14. Carrera H.
4. Esquer K.	4. Guyton A.
27. Maciel L.	23. Leti Campinas
17. Moran Y. Universidad Modelo	32. Marcal SESI Araraquara
33. Pitts D.	55. Queiroz T.
16. Rodriguez M. Estrellas	35. Vasconcelos L.
Coaches
. Pardo C.	. Figueiro L.

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Brazil may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mexico won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 221:336. (average 55.3:84).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mexico W basketball
Olympic Games - Basketball Women
20.08.26	Canada W - Mexico W	70:64 ✺
19.08.26	Senegal W - Mexico W	65:79 ✺
17.08.26	Mexico W - Philippines W	61:58 ✺
Central American and Caribbean Games Basketball Women
02.08.26	Mexico W - Puerto Rico W	44:57 ✺
31.07.26	Mexico W - Panama W	59:56 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWLW
- Brazil W basketball
Olympic Games - Basketball Women
20.08.26	Brazil W - Argentina W	58:53 ✺
18.08.26	New Zealand W - Brazil W	53:56 ✺
17.08.26	Brazil W - South Sudan W	61:63 OT ✺
South American Championship Basketball Women
09.08.26	Brazil W - Colombia W	61:48 ✺
08.08.26	Argentina W - Brazil W	72:66 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

AmeriCup Basketball Women
04.07.25	Brazil W - Mexico W	84:61
Pan American Games Basketball Women
25.10.23	Brazil W - Mexico W	72:54
AmeriCup Basketball Women
07.07.23	Brazil W - Mexico W	83:61
Basketball Americas Championship Women
25.09.13	Mexico W - Brazil W	45:97

Mexico W - Brazil W