Match Info

EUROPE: Latvian-Estonian League

Date: 18 December 2024, Wednesday

Location: Ogres 1. vidusskola (Ogre)


	Ogre		Rapla

	1	2
	1.06	7
	1.04	8.2	Watch
	1.04	7.32
	1.08	7.54	Watch
	1.05	9
	1.07	7.3
	1.04	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.05 ↓ (1.31)	7.79 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 159.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-16)

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ogre
88.1%

Rapla
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.1%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.1%

29.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ogre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ogre's performance.

Rapla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rapla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ogre than the current prediction. (-18%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ogre that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rapla than the current prediction. (+18%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rapla could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ogre - Rapla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 88:72

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Dargais K. (C)	5. Eelmae H. (C)
2. Rasnick M.	32. Kilk K.
33. Sipolins G.	4. Laane R.
17. Zebergs R.	0. Mckissic B.
12. Zunda K.	19. Niits T.
Substitutes
3. Apsitis K.	7. Kruusimagi J.
5. Avotins R.	22. Poldoja K.
14. Berzins K.	6. Ratas J.
9. Kampuss G.	8. Ruubel M.
10. Mediss K.	33. Ruut M.
24. Shundel A.
Coaches
. Svede U.	. Nomm B.

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ogre won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Rapla could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Ogre have a series of guest games.

In this match Ogre is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Ogre won 8 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 918:856 (average 83.5:77.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Ogre won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 514:459 (average 85.7:76.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BK Ogre
Estonian–Latvian Basketball League
13.12.24	BK Ventspils - Ogre	81:95 ✺
06.12.24	Tartu Rock - Ogre	66:68 ✺
30.11.24	VEF Riga - Ogre	78:73 ✺
17.11.24	Ogre - Pärnu	76:87 ✺
13.11.24	Valmiera Glass Via - Ogre	88:92 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 WWLLW
- Rapla KK
Estonian–Latvian Basketball League
15.12.24	Rapla - Valmiera Glass Via	91:86 ✺
11.12.24	Keila Basket - Rapla	80:77 ✺
07.12.24	Rīgas Zeļļi - Rapla	73:58 ✺
03.12.24	Pärnu - Rapla	78:80 ✺
30.11.24	Rapla - TalTech	93:91 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian–Latvian Basketball League
21.02.24	Rapla - Ogre	72:61
29.09.23	Ogre - Rapla	75:77 OT
07.01.23	Ogre - Rapla	92:75
03.12.22	Rapla - Ogre	81:71
19.02.22	Rapla - Ogre	86:88 OT (75:75)
02.10.21	Ogre - Rapla	107:84
11.04.21	Ogre - Rapla	75:73

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