Match Info

LPB - Round 19

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena de Ovar (Ovar)


	Ovarense		Porto

	1	2
	2.3	1.5
	2.63	1.39
	2.51	1.45
	2.4	1.5
	2.62	1.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.18)	1.45 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 170.75

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ovarense
36.8%

Porto
63.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.4%

58.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.3%

51.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ovarense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ovarense than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ovarense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Porto, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ovarense - Porto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 83:87

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
5. Heath J.	2. Dunn J.
2. Jenkins J.	24. Hudson C.
13. Soeiro R.	11. Queiroz M. (C)
55. Stormo J.	3. Voytso V.
0. Woods A.	13. Washpun W.
Substitutes
10. Monteiro M.	10. Allen-Williams C.
9. Morais N. (C)	1. Cardoso M.
3. Pavicevic I.	6. Carrera Y.
12. Silva J.	0. Davis-Fleming J.
24. Sona R.	7. Guerreiro J.
20. Teixeira G.	15. Omlid T.
33. Vuaka I.	4. Silva S.
Coaches
. Silva J.	. Sa F.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ovarense won 1.

Ovarense has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Porto is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Porto is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

We predict that Porto will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ovarense won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 1343:1535. (average 67.2:76.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ovarense won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 656:723. (average 65.6:72.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
2	FC Porto	1	1	0	110:93	2
3	Ovarense	1	1	0	96:83	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ovarense Basquetebol
Portuguese LPB
28.03.26	Benfica - Ovarense	89:70 ✺
Portuguese Taca da Liga Basketball
25.03.26	Vitória de Guimarães - Ovarense	75:81 ✺
Portuguese LPB
21.03.26	Ovarense - Vitória de Guimarães	75:91 ✺
14.03.26	Imortal - Ovarense	100:107 OT ✺
Portuguese Taca da Liga Basketball
06.03.26	Ovarense - Oliveirense	68:85 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLWL
- FC Porto Basketball
Portuguese LPB
29.03.26	Porto - CAQ Queluz	99:94 ✺
Portuguese Taca da Liga Basketball
25.03.26	CAQ Queluz - Porto	98:122 ✺
Portuguese LPB
21.03.26	Porto - Benfica	88:72 ✺
14.03.26	Vitória de Guimarães - Porto	69:115 ✺
Portuguese Taca da Liga Basketball
07.03.26	Porto - Imortal	98:85 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese LPB
06.01.26	Porto - Ovarense	74:62
19.04.25	Ovarense - Porto	66:94
18.03.25	Porto - Ovarense	75:77
Taca de Portugal Basketball
09.02.25	Porto - Ovarense	88:77
Portuguese LPB
28.05.24	Ovarense - Porto	74:77
26.05.24	Ovarense - Porto	83:86
23.05.24	Porto - Ovarense	77:60

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