Match Info

NBL - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: RAC Arena (Perth)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN, Foxtel Now, Kayo Sports


	Perth Wildcats		Sydney Kings

	1	2
			Watch
	3	1.35
	3.2	1.36
	3.04	1.36	Watch
	3	1.33
	3.46	1.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.14 ↑ (2.57)	1.35 ↓ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 190.00

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Perth Wildcats
30%

Sydney Kings
70%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36.5%

63.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.7%

60.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Perth Wildcats has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Perth Wildcats's form might have worsened.

Sydney Kings has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sydney Kings's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Perth Wildcats than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Perth Wildcats, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sydney Kings than the current prediction. (-9.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sydney Kings, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Perth Wildcats - Sydney Kings Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Perth (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 184.5, OT - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 91:99

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
5. Doolittle K.	10. Cooks X.
12. Duke Jr. D.	1. Davis K.
10. Henshall B.	8. Dellavedova M. (C)
0. Lual-Acuil J.	6. Galloway J.
40. Pepper E.	11. Soares T.
Substitutes
8. Dech S.	21. Awan L.
22. Gerovich T.	2. Craig T.
25. Huefner C.	5. Goodrick H.
13. Kouakou-Heugue N.	15. Maluach M.
2. Mayen L.	12. Noi K.
35. Okwera D.	14. Spurgin J.
1. Russo-Nance D.
24. Wagstaff J. (C)
Coaches
. Rillie J.	. Goorjian B.

Preview

Sydney Kings leads series 1-0. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Perth won 1.

Perth has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sydney is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sydney may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Sydney is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Sydney will win today's game, with odds of 1.4.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Perth won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 1809:1862. (average 90.5:93.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Perth won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 830:831. (average 92.2:92.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		PCT
2	Sydney	7	5	2	714:617	0.714
3	Perth	6	4	2	547:564	0.667

Last Results with these Odds

Sydney Kings - the odds 1.48 are the expected chance of winning is 63.46%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Perth Wildcats
Australian NBL
11.03.26	Sydney Kings - Perth Wildcats	105:104 ✺
07.03.26	Perth Wildcats - Melbourne United	95:77 ✺
04.03.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Perth Wildcats	111:94 ✺
20.02.26	Perth Wildcats - Adelaide 36ers	86:74 ✺
15.02.26	Sydney Kings - Perth Wildcats	102:84 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWL
- Sydney Kings
Australian NBL
11.03.26	Sydney Kings - Perth Wildcats	105:104 ✺
20.02.26	Brisbane Bullets - Sydney Kings	77:117 ✺
15.02.26	Sydney Kings - Perth Wildcats	102:84 ✺
13.02.26	Illawarra Hawks - Sydney Kings	94:120 ✺
07.02.26	South East Melbourne Phoenix - Sydney Kings	88:114 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NBL
11.03.26	Sydney Kings - Perth Wildcats	105:104
15.02.26	Sydney Kings - Perth Wildcats	102:84
12.12.25	Perth Wildcats - Sydney Kings	79:108
19.10.25	Sydney Kings - Perth Wildcats	94:72
01.02.25	Sydney Kings - Perth Wildcats	97:104
25.10.24	Perth Wildcats - Sydney Kings	87:84
27.09.24	Perth Wildcats - Sydney Kings	87:88

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