Match Info

ITALY: Lega A - Round 12

Date: 22 December 2024, Sunday

Location: PalaCarrara (Pistoia)

Referee: Attard B. (Ita)


	Pistoia Basket		Derthona Basket Tortona

	1	2
			Watch
	1.9	1.83
	1.82	2	Watch
	1.83	1.99
	1.81	2.01	Watch
	1.8	2.06
	1.82	1.99	Watch
	1.82	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.35)	1.98 ↑ (1.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 168.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pistoia Basket
52%

Derthona Basket Tortona
48%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

59.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

58.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pistoia Basket has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Pistoia Basket's performance.

Derthona Basket Tortona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Derthona Basket Tortona might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pistoia Basket than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pistoia Basket that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derthona Basket Tortona than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Derthona Basket Tortona could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	0%	13.3%

Pistoia Basket - Derthona Basket Tortona Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Pistoia will win (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Tortona will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Pistoia: 69.5% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 85:83

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
00. Christon S.	12. Strautins A.
9. Kemp M.	20. Severini L.
25. Silins K.	14. Kamagate I.
8. Rowan M.	2. Kuhse T.
11. Forrest M.	1. Vital C.
Substitutes
3. Anumba M.	13. Baldasso T.
0. Benetti G.	19. Biligha P.
14. Cemmi L.	7. Candi L.
2. Della Rosa G.	11. Denegri D.
5. Paschall E.	23. Josovic A.
6. Pinelli G.	34. Weems K.
15. Saccaggi L.	0. Zerini A.
Coaches
. Markovski Z.	. De Raffaele W.

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 14 and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Lega A (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Pistoia has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Tortona is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tortona could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Pistoia won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 184:168 (average 92:84).

Including matches at home between the teams Pistoia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 84:71

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pistoia Basket 2000
Italian Lega A Basketball
14.12.24	Scafati - Pistoia Basket	107:102 OT ✺
07.12.24	Pistoia Basket - Trapani	88:94 ✺
30.11.24	Treviso Basket - Pistoia Basket	91:88 ✺
17.11.24	Pistoia Basket - Basket Trento	88:92 ✺
10.11.24	Dinamo Sassari - Pistoia Basket	77:75 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Derthona Basket Tortona
Champions League Basketball
17.12.24	Basquet Manresa - Derthona Basket Tortona	100:82 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
14.12.24	Derthona Basket Tortona - Venezia	89:82 ✺
Champions League Basketball
10.12.24	Niners Chemnitz - Derthona Basket Tortona	61:77 ✺
Italian Lega A Basketball
07.12.24	Derthona Basket Tortona - Treviso Basket	90:95 ✺
01.12.24	Olimpia Milano - Derthona Basket Tortona	94:98 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Lega A Basketball
03.03.24	Pistoia Basket - Derthona Basket Tortona	84:71
09.12.23	Derthona Basket Tortona - Pistoia Basket	97:100

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