Match Info

Latvian-Estonian League

Date: 17 December 2025, Wednesday

Location: Parnu Spordihall (Parnu)


	Pärnu		BK Ventspils

	1	2
			Watch
	2.25	1.58
	2.31	1.55
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.3	1.57
	2.34	1.53
	2.5	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↑ (1.89)	1.55 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 170.25

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pärnu
40%

BK Ventspils
60%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

52.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.6%

51.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pärnu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pärnu's form might have worsened.

BK Ventspils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting BK Ventspils's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pärnu than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pärnu, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BK Ventspils than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for BK Ventspils, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Pärnu - BK Ventspils Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Pärnu (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 83:87

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
5. Eelmae H.	2. Ausejs A. (C)
1. Harris D.	7. Birkans R.
14. Ilves G.	24. Bryant Donell T. R.
11. Johansson D.	20. Shelton C.
10. Ogemuno-Johnson A.	30. Zakis R.
Substitutes
2. Aav S. (C)	15. Atanasovs N.
33. Allik W.	10. Berze R.
20. Arvidsson J.	23. Teirumnieks R.
22. Hint A.	9. Urkis A.
24. Sonntak K.
Coaches
. Evart K.	. Fogels G.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pärnu won 1.

Pärnu has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ventspils is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Ventspils may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Pärnu has had a series of away games.

Ventspils could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Pärnu won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 1396:1615. (average 77.6:89.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Pärnu won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 689:750. (average 76.6:83.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Pärnu - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 47.79%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- KK Pärnu
Estonian–Latvian Basketball League
13.12.25	VEF Riga - Pärnu	90:80 ✺
06.12.25	Keila - Pärnu	70:97 ✺
23.11.25	Liepāja - Pärnu	83:90 ✺
15.11.25	TalTech - Pärnu	86:78 ✺
08.11.25	Pärnu - Valmiera Glass Via	62:78 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWWLL
- BK Ventspils
Estonian–Latvian Basketball League
12.12.25	BK Ventspils - Keila	117:93 ✺
06.12.25	Tallinna Kalev - BK Ventspils	92:99 OT ✺
05.12.25	Keila Basket - BK Ventspils	80:81 ✺
21.11.25	TalTech - BK Ventspils	86:80 ✺
16.11.25	BK Ventspils - Liepāja	104:69 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Estonian–Latvian Basketball League
01.02.25	Pärnu - BK Ventspils	100:90
10.12.24	BK Ventspils - Pärnu	95:92 OT
19.12.23	BK Ventspils - Pärnu	91:84
02.12.23	Pärnu - BK Ventspils	77:80
08.03.23	BK Ventspils - Pärnu	91:84
03.12.22	Pärnu - BK Ventspils	81:75
09.02.22	Pärnu - BK Ventspils	94:79

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