Match Info

WORLD: WORLD CUP

Date: 1 September 2023, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Smart Araneta Coliseum (Manila) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Germany	10:00	Magenta Sport
Greece	11:00	Nova Sports


	Serbia		Italy

	1	2
	1.22	4.5	Watch
	1.25	3.95
	1.24	4.19
	1.25	4.1	Watch
	1.23	4.3	Watch
	1.26	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.4)	4.16 ↑ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 172.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serbia
77%

Italy
23%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

67.1%

32.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.8%

34.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serbia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Serbia's performance.

Italy has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Italy might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Serbia than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Serbia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Italy than the current prediction. (+11.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Italy could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96.3%	0%	3.7%

Serbia - Italy Predictions

Users Predictions: Serbia will win (26 of 27 users predict this - 96.3%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.18% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 91:82

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Serbia won 2.

Serbia in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Italy is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

In this match Serbia is a favorite.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Serbia won 10 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 1172-1064.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Serbia basketball
World Championship Basketball
30.08.23	South Sudan - Serbia	83:115 ✺
28.08.23	Puerto Rico - Serbia	77:94 ✺
26.08.23	Serbia - China	105:63 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
21.08.23	Serbia - Brazil	89:85 ✺
20.08.23	Serbia - China	87:64 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWWWW
- Italy basketball
World Championship Basketball
29.08.23	Philippines - Italy	83:90 ✺
27.08.23	Italy - Dominican Republic	82:87 ✺
25.08.23	Angola - Italy	67:81 ✺
Friendly International Basketball
21.08.23	Italy - New Zealand	88:81 ✺
20.08.23	Italy - Brazil	93:87 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Friendly International Basketball
09.08.23	Serbia - Italy	88:89
EuroBasket
11.09.22	Serbia - Italy	86:94
DBB Supercup
19.08.22	Italy - Serbia	86:90
Olympic Games - Basketball
04.07.21	Serbia - Italy	95:102
World Championship Basketball
04.09.19	Italy - Serbia	77:92
Friendly International Basketball
23.08.19	Serbia - Italy	71:65
Acropolis Tournament
17.08.19	Italy - Serbia	64:96

Serbia - Italy