Match Info

NCAA

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished


	Tarleton State Texans		Texas-Arlington Mavericks

	1	2
	1.79	1.96
	1.8	1.92
	1.85	2.01
	1.83	1.89	Watch
	1.73	2
	1.73	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.72)	1.96 ↓ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 136.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tarleton State Texans
52.3%

Texas-Arlington Mavericks
47.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.4%

45.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.9%

47.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tarleton State Texans has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Texas-Arlington Mavericks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tarleton State Texans than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Texas-Arlington Mavericks than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Tarleton State Texans - Texas Arlington Mavericks Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 69:69

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tarleton State won 2.

In recent matches, Tarleton State has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Texas-Arlington is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Texas-Arlington may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Tarleton State won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 648:643. (average 72:71.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Tarleton State won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 309:300. (average 77.3:75).

Outrights of NCAA College Basketball for now

Tarleton: 0.22%

Last Results with these Odds

Texas-Arlington Mavericks - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 45.55%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tarleton State Texans basketball
NCAA College Basketball
28.02.26	California Baptist Lancers - Tarleton State Texans	82:67 ✺
26.02.26	Utah Valley Wolverines - Tarleton State Texans	79:72 ✺
21.02.26	Tarleton State Texans - Utah Tech Trailblazers	72:80 ✺
19.02.26	Tarleton State Texans - Southern Utah Thunderbirds	78:74 ✺
16.02.26	Tarleton State Texans - Abilene Christian Wildcats	65:62 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLWW
- Texas-Arlington Mavericks basketball
NCAA College Basketball
26.02.26	California Baptist Lancers - Texas-Arlington Mavericks	68:56 ✺
21.02.26	Texas-Arlington Mavericks - Utah Valley Wolverines	54:66 ✺
19.02.26	Texas-Arlington Mavericks - Utah Tech Trailblazers	63:50 ✺
14.02.26	Texas-Arlington Mavericks - Southern Utah Thunderbirds	73:78 ✺
12.02.26	Abilene Christian Wildcats - Texas-Arlington Mavericks	67:63 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

NCAA College Basketball
21.01.26	Texas-Arlington Mavericks - Tarleton State Texans	71:64
29.12.25	Texas-Arlington Mavericks - Tarleton State Texans	63:69
22.02.25	Texas-Arlington Mavericks - Tarleton State Texans	67:57
04.01.25	Tarleton State Texans - Texas-Arlington Mavericks	77:74
15.03.24	Tarleton State Texans - Texas-Arlington Mavericks	84:87
15.02.24	Texas-Arlington Mavericks - Tarleton State Texans	78:80
04.01.24	Tarleton State Texans - Texas-Arlington Mavericks	78:76

Tarleton State Texans - Texas-Arlington Mavericks