Match Info

Basket Liga - Round 1

Date: 23 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Arena Torun (Toruń)

Referee: Pietrzak J. (Pol)


	Toruń		Dąbrowa Górnicza

	1	2
	1.45	2.6
	1.34	2.85	Watch
	1.43	2.67	Watch
	1.4	2.75
	1.37	2.97
	1.5	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.48)	2.72 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 177.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-53)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toruń
65.8%

Dąbrowa Górnicza
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.6%

38.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toruń has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Dąbrowa Górnicza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toruń than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toruń that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dąbrowa Górnicza than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dąbrowa Górnicza could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	0%	87.5%

Toruń - Dąbrowa Górnicza Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Toruń will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Dąbrowa Górnicza will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dąbrowa Górnicza: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Dąbrowa Górnicza will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 116:63

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
7. Brenk A.	0. Bonner D.
77. Kulig D. (C)	7. Montgomery JR E.
11. Langovic A.	8. Muhammad L.
2. Persons T.	10. Musial J.
3. Thomasson N.	15. Peterka M.
Substitutes
8. Kenig M.	32. Bogucki A.
12. Kunc A.	11. Curry R.
17. Lipinski H.	4. Piechowicz M. (C)
27. Prokopowicz H.	2. Wojdala J.
0. Smith A.	6. Zablocki M.
6. Sowinski P.	5. Zalucki A.
4. Szlachetka M.
Coaches
. Subotic S.	. Szablowski K.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toruń won 3.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Dąbrowa Górnicza may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Toruń could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toruń won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 1769:1691. (average 88.5:84.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Toruń won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 964:897. (average 87.6:81.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Twarde Pierniki Toruń
Polish Basket Liga
20.12.25	Toruń - Trefl Sopot	95:86 ✺
14.12.25	Dziki Warszawa - Toruń	110:91 ✺
07.12.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Toruń	87:75 ✺
22.11.25	Toruń - Zielona Góra	95:81 ✺
15.11.25	Toruń - Anwil Włocławek	95:101 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLWL
- MKS Dąbrowa Górnicza
Polish Basket Liga
18.12.25	MOSiR Krosno - Dąbrowa Górnicza	92:87 OT ✺
14.12.25	Asseco Prokom Gdynia - Dąbrowa Górnicza	92:84 ✺
05.12.25	Dąbrowa Górnicza - GTK Gliwice	88:72 ✺
22.11.25	Dąbrowa Górnicza - Górnik Wałbrzych	79:96 ✺
15.11.25	Dąbrowa Górnicza - Trefl Sopot	93:81 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Basket Liga
07.05.25	Toruń - Dąbrowa Górnicza	74:86
16.01.25	Dąbrowa Górnicza - Toruń	98:101
29.03.24	Toruń - Dąbrowa Górnicza	79:89
01.12.23	Dąbrowa Górnicza - Toruń	85:92
13.04.23	Toruń - Dąbrowa Górnicza	106:77
18.12.22	Dąbrowa Górnicza - Toruń	96:106
13.04.22	Toruń - Dąbrowa Górnicza	85:92

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