Match Info

Basket Liga - Round 29

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Ergo Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Wierzman A. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	Polsat Sport 3, Polsat Sport Extra 4


	Trefl Sopot		Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski

	1	2
	1.36	2.9
	1.32	2.95	Watch
	1.55	2.54
	1.5	2.43	Watch
	1.3	3.25
	1.29	3.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.31)	2.86 ↓ (3.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 167.75

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trefl Sopot
67.3%

Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.1%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66%

34%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trefl Sopot has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Trefl Sopot than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Trefl Sopot - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 87:81

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
2. Sherfield G.	9. Golebiowski D. (C)
33. Goins K.	5. Mejeris M.
21. Zapala S.	22. Laster D.
37. Addae Wusu D.	33. Gibson T.
0. Scruggs P. (C)	13. Jackson Q.
Substitutes
18. Cowels R.	6. Brembly D.
25. Jech M.	8. Czoska N.
3. Kiejzik S.	15. Reid E.
5. Lacz F.	23. Rutecki J.
7. Nowicki S.	2. Sakota L.
11. Suurorg K.	11. Smektala A.
Coaches
. Larkas M.	. Urban A.

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Trefl Sopot won 3.

Trefl Sopot is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Stal Ostrów has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Trefl Sopot may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Trefl Sopot is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Trefl Sopot will win today's game, with odds of 1.32.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Trefl Sopot won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 1593:1706. (average 79.7:85.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Trefl Sopot won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 682:671. (average 85.3:83.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	L		Pts
9	Ostrow Wielkopolski	1	1	0	84:79	2
16	Trefl Sopot	1	0	1	63:102	1

Last Results with these Odds

Trefl Sopot - the odds 1.31 are the expected chance of winning is 70.11%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Trefl Sopot
Polish Basket Liga
25.04.26	Czarni Słupsk - Trefl Sopot	72:76 ✺
18.04.26	Trefl Sopot - Toruń	92:72 ✺
11.04.26	Trefl Sopot - Start Lublin	103:97 OT ✺
06.04.26	Trefl Sopot - Legia Warsaw	93:100 ✺
28.03.26	King Wilki Morskie Szczecin - Trefl Sopot	85:96 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWWLW
- Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski
Polish Basket Liga
25.04.26	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Dziki Warszawa	73:83 ✺
17.04.26	Śląsk Wrocław - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	73:77 ✺
13.04.26	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Zielona Góra	75:82 ✺
06.04.26	Anwil Włocławek - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	90:81 ✺
29.03.26	MOSiR Krosno - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	80:87 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Basket Liga
01.01.26	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Trefl Sopot	89:80
02.03.25	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Trefl Sopot	95:82
26.10.24	Trefl Sopot - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	96:81
03.03.24	Trefl Sopot - Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski	88:76
04.11.23	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Trefl Sopot	70:71
18.03.23	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Trefl Sopot	79:84
ENBL
01.02.23	Stal Ostrów Wielkopolski - Trefl Sopot	88:65

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