Match Info

2. Bundesliga - Round 30

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday


	Lübeck-Schwartau		TUSEM Essen

	1	X	2
	1.37	9.2	3.85
	1.36	8.29	4.07	Watch
	1.33	9	3.75
	1.4	9.8	3.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.67)	9.07 ↑ (7.5)	3.85 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.25

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lübeck-Schwartau
66.4%

Draw
10%

TUSEM Essen
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

12%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.3%

11.5%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lübeck-Schwartau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lübeck-Schwartau's performance.

TUSEM Essen has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and TUSEM Essen might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lübeck-Schwartau than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lübeck-Schwartau that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for TUSEM Essen than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that TUSEM Essen could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lübeck Schwartau - TUSEM Essen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:29

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lübeck-Schwartau won 2.

Lübeck-Schwartau is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

TUSEM Essen has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Lübeck-Schwartau is a strong favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Lübeck-Schwartau won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 8 matches, and goals 482:479. (average 26.8:26.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Lübeck-Schwartau won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 242:232. (average 26.9:25.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
5	Lubeck-Schwartau	6	5	0	1	205:170	10
18	Essen	7	0	1	6	205:240	1

Last Results with these Odds

TUSEM Essen - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 34.18%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- VfL Lübeck-Schwartau
German 2 Bundesliga Handball
25.04.26	Krefeld - Lübeck-Schwartau	28:28 ✺
17.04.26	Lübeck-Schwartau - Ferndorf	26:24 ✺
10.04.26	TSG Friesenheim Ludwigshafen - Lübeck-Schwartau	24:35 ✺
02.04.26	Lübeck-Schwartau - Nordhorn-Lingen	29:24 ✺
29.03.26	HSC 2000 Coburg - Lübeck-Schwartau	40:34 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWWWL
- TUSEM Essen
German 2 Bundesliga Handball
26.04.26	TUSEM Essen - Elbflorenz	32:32 ✺
17.04.26	Potsdam - TUSEM Essen	32:32 ✺
10.04.26	TUSEM Essen - HBW Balingen-Weilstetten	25:34 ✺
02.04.26	Dessau-Roßlauer - TUSEM Essen	36:32 ✺
29.03.26	TUSEM Essen - Bietigheim	33:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

German 2 Bundesliga Handball
28.11.25	TUSEM Essen - Lübeck-Schwartau	28:30
01.06.25	TUSEM Essen - Lübeck-Schwartau	25:25
22.12.24	Lübeck-Schwartau - TUSEM Essen	31:22
01.06.24	Lübeck-Schwartau - TUSEM Essen	25:29
17.12.23	TUSEM Essen - Lübeck-Schwartau	31:19
07.06.23	Lübeck-Schwartau - TUSEM Essen	29:28
03.02.23	TUSEM Essen - Lübeck-Schwartau	23:22

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