Match Info

Liga ASOBAL - Round 6

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Reale Ademar		Villa de Aranda

	1	X	2
	1.80	8.50	2.55
	1.75	8.00	2.45
	1.81	8.50	2.43
	1.88	6.9	2.39	Watch
	1.80	8.80	2.42	Watch
	1.84	7.60	2.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.72)	8.05 ↓ (8.8)	2.44 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 63.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Reale Ademar
50.8%

Draw
11.4%

Villa de Aranda
37.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

33.5%

10.3%

56.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

10%

54.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Reale Ademar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Reale Ademar's performance.

Villa de Aranda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Villa de Aranda might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Reale Ademar than the current prediction. (-15.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Reale Ademar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Villa de Aranda than the current prediction. (+16.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Villa de Aranda could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Reale Ademar - Villa de Aranda Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ademar will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ademar (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 - Ademar (2.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 63.5, OT - over (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Ademar (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:33

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Preview

A direct clash near the foot of the table where neither side can afford to drop points (ranked 13th and 16th in the Relegation - Division de Honor Plata).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ademar won 4.

Ademar is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Villa de Aranda is on a prolonged losing streak (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, Ademar has recorded 12 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 511:444 (averaging 31.9:27.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ademar against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 267:219 goals (averaging 33.4:27.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
8	Ademar	7	3	0	4	247:246	6
16	Villa de Aranda	7	0	2	5	204:238	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Reale Ademar
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
10.10.26	Reale Ademar - Nava	36:38 ✺
02.10.26	Caserio Ciudad Real - Reale Ademar	35:33 ✺
25.09.26	Reale Ademar - Morrazo Cangas	33:32 ✺
20.09.26	Reale Ademar - BM Ciudad Encantada	32:35 ✺
13.09.26	Alser Puerto Sagunto - Reale Ademar	39:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLWLL
- Villa de Aranda
Spanish Liga ASOBAL
11.10.26	Villa de Aranda - Barcelona	33:40 ✺
03.10.26	Torrelavega - Villa de Aranda	28:21 ✺
26.09.26	Villa de Aranda - Bidasoa Irun	32:39 ✺
19.09.26	Atlético Valladolid - Villa de Aranda	34:26 ✺
13.09.26	Villa de Aranda - Caserio Ciudad Real	30:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Liga ASOBAL
30.05.26	Villa de Aranda - Reale Ademar	35:33
20.12.25	Reale Ademar - Villa de Aranda	37:32
15.02.25	Villa de Aranda - Reale Ademar	25:27
22.09.24	Reale Ademar - Villa de Aranda	30:25
17.02.21	Villa de Aranda - Reale Ademar	24:31
12.09.20	Reale Ademar - Villa de Aranda	33:25
27.05.17	Villa de Aranda - Reale Ademar	29:34

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