Match Info

1. Division

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday


	Tønder		Midtjylland

	1	X	2
	1.40	9.00	3.60
	1.46	9	3.3
	1.34	8.20	4.31	Watch
	1.37	9.7	3.45
	1.39	9.8	3.79
	1.38	10	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.67)	9.28 ↑ (7.98)	3.66 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 59.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-3)

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tønder
65.4%

Draw
9.8%

Midtjylland
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.7%

11.2%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

11%

35.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tønder has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tønder's performance.

Midtjylland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Midtjylland might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tønder than the current prediction. (-12.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tønder that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Midtjylland than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Midtjylland could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tønder - Midtjylland Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tønder (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 32:29

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Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tønder won 4.

Tønder has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Midtjylland is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Tønder carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Tønder has recorded 6 wins, 1 draw, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 433:421 (averaging 28.9:28.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Tønder against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 196:193 goals (averaging 28:27.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Tonder	7	5	0	2	208:189	10
3	Midtjylland	7	5	0	2	210:201	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TM Tønder Håndbold
Danish 1 Division Handball
27.09.26	HØJ - Tønder	31:28 ✺
20.09.26	Tønder - AGF	28:21 ✺
13.09.26	Sydhavsøerne - Tønder	26:30 ✺
06.09.26	Tønder - Stoholm	32:21 ✺
29.08.26	Grindsted - Tønder	33:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWWL
- HC Midtjylland
Danish 1 Division Handball
26.09.26	Midtjylland - Køge	30:27 ✺
19.09.26	Odder HB - Midtjylland	39:32 ✺
11.09.26	Midtjylland - Rækker Mølle	28:27 ✺
04.09.26	Aarhus - Midtjylland	28:32 ✺
29.08.26	Midtjylland - Lemvig-Thyborøn	32:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division Handball
29.03.26	Midtjylland - Tønder	26:35
30.11.25	Tønder - Midtjylland	32:29
21.03.25	Midtjylland - Tønder	29:34
15.11.24	Tønder - Midtjylland	28:29
16.02.24	Midtjylland - Tønder	24:28
20.10.23	Tønder - Midtjylland	25:27
30.01.22	Tønder - Midtjylland	27:27

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