Match Info

NMHL - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday


	Arktika Murmansk		Ermak Angarsk

	1	X	2
	4.65	5	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.65 ↓ (5.82)	5 ↓ (5.9)	1.48 ↑ (1.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.75

The best margin for this event is 9.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arktika Murmansk
19.7%

Draw
18.3%

Ermak Angarsk
61.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16%

15.7%

68.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.1%

15.8%

68%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arktika Murmansk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Ermak Angarsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ermak Angarsk might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arktika Murmansk than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ermak Angarsk than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ermak Angarsk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
13:41, 0 - 1, Vildanov K. (G), Malgin D. (A), Ivanov V. (A2)
14:00, 0 - 2, Tungusov N. (G),
2nd Period (1 - 1)
05:27, 1 - 2, Kovalchuk V. (G), Yeremin A. (A),
13:42, 1 - 3, Starovoitov A. (G), Zakharov Z. (A),
3rd Period (1 - 2)
03:56, 1 - 4, Zakharov Z. (G), Bufatin N. (A), Kovalenko D. (A2)
06:47, 2 - 4, Borovskoy N. (G), Meshalkin D. (A),
18', 2 - 5, (G),

Preview

3rd leg. Yermak Angarsk (NMHL) leads series 2-0.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Arktika won 2.

Recent matches Arktika is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ermak in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Arktika could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Ermak have a series of home games.

In this match Ermak is certain favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Arktika won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 29:32 (average 4.1:4.6).

Including matches at home between the teams Arktika won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 20:9 (average 5:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arktika Murmansk
RHL
30.03.25	Ermak Angarsk - Arktika Murmansk	10:4 ✺
29.03.25	Ermak Angarsk - Arktika Murmansk	5:0 ✺
23.03.25	Arktika Murmansk - Tayfun Saint-Petersburg	3:2 ✺
22.03.25	Arktika Murmansk - Tayfun Saint-Petersburg	4:0 ✺
12.03.25	Fakel Salekhard - Arktika Murmansk	2:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.3 LLWWW
- Ermak Angarsk
RHL
30.03.25	Ermak Angarsk - Arktika Murmansk	10:4 ✺
29.03.25	Ermak Angarsk - Arktika Murmansk	5:0 ✺
23.03.25	Ermak Angarsk - Metallurg Cherepovets	5:3 ✺
22.03.25	Ermak Angarsk - Metallurg Cherepovets	7:2 ✺
19.03.25	Ermak Angarsk - Polyot Rybinsk	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

RHL
30.03.25	Ermak Angarsk - Arktika Murmansk	10:4
29.03.25	Ermak Angarsk - Arktika Murmansk	5:0
03.12.24	Arktika Murmansk - Ermak Angarsk	6:4
02.12.24	Arktika Murmansk - Ermak Angarsk	4:1
27.02.24	Ermak Angarsk - Arktika Murmansk	8:5
22.09.23	Arktika Murmansk - Ermak Angarsk	6:2
21.09.23	Arktika Murmansk - Ermak Angarsk	4:2

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