Match Info

Optibet Hokeja Liga

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Mogo ledus halle (Riga)


	Mogo		Liepāja

	1	X	2
	1.72	4.25	3.40
	1.64	4.4	3.75
	1.59	4.76	3.76
	1.6	4.87	3.92	Watch
	1.57	4.7	3.7
	1.58	4.6	4.04	Watch
	1.59	4.5	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.78)	4.58 ↑ (4.2)	3.82 ↑ (3.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.75

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mogo
56.4%

Draw
19.8%

Liepāja
23.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51%

21.5%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.8%

23.4%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mogo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mogo's performance.

Liepāja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mogo than the current prediction. (-9.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mogo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liepāja than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Liepāja could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mogo - Liepāja Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Mezsargs K. (G)	1. Valenta M. (G)
44. Aunins D.	33. Andersons D. (A)
24. Berzins R.	21. Andrejevs D.
16. Daugavins K.	23. Berzins A.
9. Grinbergs R.	90. Berzins K.
2. Jakobsons K.	73. Borskis R.
86. Kalkis R.	17. Butans K.
91. Kenins R.	28. Freidenfelds R.
26. Krums E.	18. Grinbergs R. (C)
18. Locmelis I.	62. Iso-Kuortti P.
5. Megris M.	72. Kravinskis M.
87. Meija G. (C)	15. Lagzdins N.
7. Ozollapa R.	11. Nille K. E.
72. Pogins P.	24. Nimanis K.
92. Polcs R.	25. Ozolins K. (A)
15. Skrastins K.	22. Petkus M.
11. Sotnieks K. (A)	7. Snepste A.
57. Zaicevs V.	34. Tamenieks K.
17. Zelubovskis E. (A)	2. Valivonis S.
21. Zemitis J.	41. Zile N.
69. Ziemins K.
Substitutes
33. Ancs H. (G)	31. Cakovs E. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
07:40, 1 - 0, Zelubovskis E. (G), Polcs R. (A), Ziemins K. (A2)
17:23, 1 - 1, Ozolins K. (G), Andersons D. (A), Butans K. (A2)
2nd Period (2 - 0)
05:59, 2 - 1, Grinbergs R. (G), Ziemins K. (A),
06:38, 3 - 1, Polcs R. (G), Berzins R. (A), Daugavins K. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
17:26, 4 - 1, Zaicevs V. (G), Krums E. (A), Zemitis J. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mogo won 3.

Mogo has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by Liepāja have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Mogo is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Mogo has recorded 12 wins, 1 draw, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 64:41 (averaging 3.2:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mogo against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 47:27 goals (averaging 4.3:2.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
1	Mogo	9	8	0	1	0	50:12	17
5	Liepaja	8	2	1	1	4	18:26	7

Last Results with these Odds

Mogo - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 50.98%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HK Mogo
Latvian Hokeja Liga
23.09.26	Mogo - Panter Tallinn	4:1 ✺
19.09.26	Mogo - Kyiv Capitals	9:2 ✺
16.09.26	Liepāja - Mogo	2:1 penalties ✺
12.09.26	HS Rīga - Mogo	1:9 ✺
09.09.26	Mogo - HS Rīga	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW
- HK Liepāja
Latvian Hokeja Liga
23.09.26	Liepāja - Kyiv Capitals	0:5 ✺
19.09.26	Zemgale LLU - Liepāja	3:2 ✺
16.09.26	Liepāja - Mogo	2:1 penalties ✺
12.09.26	Liepāja - Riga Prizma	4:2 ✺
08.09.26	Riga Prizma - Liepāja	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Hokeja Liga
16.09.26	Liepāja - Mogo	2:1 penalties
11.03.26	Mogo - Liepāja	4:2
28.01.26	Liepāja - Mogo	4:3 OT
03.12.25	Mogo - Liepāja	7:4
08.10.25	Mogo - Liepāja	7:2
17.09.25	Liepāja - Mogo	2:3 penalties
15.03.22	Mogo - Liepāja	5:1

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