Match Info

Mestis

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Location: Lappi Areena (Rovaniemi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	RoKi		TuTo

	1	X	2
	2.10	4.00	2.60
	2.28	4.25	2.40	Watch
	2.35	4.01	2.33
	2.34	4.4	2.39	Watch
	2.30	3.95	2.30
	2.39	4.05	2.31	Watch
	2.33	4.10	2.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↑ (2.02)	4.11 ↓ (4.26)	2.39 ↓ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.50

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RoKi
39.7%

Draw
22.2%

TuTo
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

21.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

23.5%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RoKi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that RoKi's form might have worsened.

TuTo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting TuTo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RoKi than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TuTo than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

RoKi - TuTo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
70. Parviainen O. (G)	70. Anttila E. (G)
55. Kenttamaa A. (C)	62. Kulmala F.
11. Laakso E.	46. Kiukas P.
91. Mikkola M.	15. Markkula S. (C)
19. Orn T.	11. Valila E.
21. Alanko T. (A)	22. Karnaranta V.
Line 2
18. Siira L.	48. Happonen E.
2. Manninen J. (A)	5. Rikkila H.
77. Sikorski A.	94. Nordgren N.
87. Ruusunen R.	71. Turunen R. (A)
76. Kaarela E.	19. Korhonen J. (A)
Line 3
92. Lamsa J.	3. Vuorinen V.
5. Antikainen A.	44. Vuori T.
96. Savolainen V.	90. Turppa T.
9. Lindroos V.	34. Hameenaho V.
90. Vierimaa W.	21. Juhola J.
Line 4
84. Gronlund N.	33. Nummelin R.
13. Strazdins R.	51. Rannikko O.
12. Ohtonen J.	72. Huumo V.
23. Heinonen J.	14. Lindholm V.
Substitutes
1. Hyypia E. (G)	37. Raikka E. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (1 - 1)
02:43, 1 - 0, Kaarela E. (G), Siira L. (A), Alanko T. (A2)
05:16, 1 - 1, Kiukas P. (G), Karnaranta V. (A), Kulmala F. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
13:37, 1 - 2, Juhola J. (G), Hameenaho V. (A),
14:52, 2 - 2, Ruusunen R. (G), Sikorski A. (A), Kaarela E. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 1)
08:29, 2 - 3, Turunen R. (G), Nordgren N. (A),
10:56, 3 - 3, Mikkola M. (G), Alanko T. (A), Orn T. (A2)
Penalties (3 - 2)
1, (Penalty Shot),
1, (Penalty Shot),
2, (Penalty Shot),
2, (Penalty Shot),
3, (Penalty Shot),
3, (Penalty Shot),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RoKi won 2.

RoKi has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Performances by TuTo have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

TuTo may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, RoKi has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 43:60 (averaging 2.2:3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for RoKi against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 23:30 goals (averaging 2.3:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
3	RoKi	8	3	3	0	2	26:15	15

Last Results with these Odds

TuTo - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 32.24%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rovaniemen Kiekko
Finnish Mestis
12.09.26	RoKi - Hermes Kokkola	5:0 ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
03.09.26	IPK - RoKi	6:7 ✺
28.08.26	RoKi - Kalix	Canceled
27.08.26	Hermes Kokkola - RoKi	6:3
18.08.26	Boden - RoKi	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.5 WW?LW
- TuTo
Finnish Mestis
12.09.26	Kiekko-Vantaa - TuTo	4:1 ✺
11.09.26	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	4:3 OT ✺
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
27.08.26	KeuPa - TuTo	3:8 ✺
26.08.26	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	2:5
25.08.26	TuTo - KeuPa	3:1
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
11.02.26	TuTo - RoKi	3:1
20.12.25	RoKi - TuTo	1:2
22.11.25	TuTo - RoKi	5:1
25.10.25	RoKi - TuTo	4:2
20.09.25	RoKi - TuTo	2:1 OT
01.02.25	TuTo - RoKi	5:1
31.01.25	TuTo - RoKi	4:1

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