Match Info

Mestis

Date: 2 October 2026, Friday

Location: Rajupaja Areena (Turku)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	MTV Katsomo+


	TuTo		Nokian Pyry

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.75	4.10
	1.58	4.65	4.35	Watch
	1.54	4.58	4.19
	1.53	4.99	4.68	Watch
	1.51	4.45	4.1
	1.49	4.85	4.74	Watch
	1.5	4.5	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.57)	4.68 ↑ (4.64)	4.38 ↑ (4.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 6.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

TuTo
59.7%

Draw
19.5%

Nokian Pyry
20.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.9%

19.6%

22.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

20.8%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

TuTo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Nokian Pyry has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for TuTo than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with TuTo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nokian Pyry than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

TuTo - Nokian Pyry Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 4:1

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Lineups

Line 1
31. Helomaa J. (G)	35. Myllykangas A. (G)
62. Kulmala F.	62. Tuupanen T.
46. Kiukas P.	28. Bilgili S. (C)
15. Markkula S. (C)	42. Mikkonen D.
11. Valila E.	29. Hietamaki T.
22. Karnaranta V.	20. Virolainen J.
Line 2
48. Happonen E.	4. Ylitalo V. (A)
5. Rikkila H.	8. Saavola T.
94. Nordgren N. (A)	78. Haataja V.
71. Turunen R. (A)	16. Harkimo D.
19. Korhonen J.
Line 3
3. Vuorinen V.	32. Selin K.
44. Vuori T.	26. Hietanen J.
90. Turppa T.	92. Nyppeli J.
34. Hameenaho V.	11. Kaihua T.
21. Juhola J.	34. Mantymaki T. (A)
Line 4
14. Lindholm V.	17. Frantsila K.
28. Valila E.	18. Kalliosalo J.
25. Lindholm L.	12. Lehtosaari R.
51. Rannikko O.	25. Kaipinen N.
Substitutes
37. Raikka E. (G)	31. Makela A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (2 - 1)
04:09, 1 - 0, Happonen E. (G), Kiukas P. (A), Nordgren N. (A2)
06:02, 1 - 1, Lehtosaari R. (G), Mikkonen D. (A), Harkimo D. (A2)
16:03, 2 - 1, Happonen E. (G), Kiukas P. (A), Nordgren N. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 0)
06:13, 3 - 1, Valila E. (G), Karnaranta V. (A), Kulmala F. (A2)
3rd Period (3 - 1)
03:26, 4 - 1, Valila E. (G), Markkula S. (A), Karnaranta V. (A2)
04:10, 4 - 2, Hietamaki T. (G),
10:04, 5 - 2, Valila E. (G), Markkula S. (A), Karnaranta V. (A2)
17:11, 6 - 2, Vuori T. (G), Helomaa J. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, TuTo won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Bookmakers give the edge to TuTo for this game.

Our forecast points to a victory for TuTo in today's match, at odds of 1.57.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, TuTo has recorded 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:28 (averaging 4:3.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for TuTo against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 19:17 goals (averaging 3.8:3.4 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
6	Pyry	9	3	0	1	5	26:31	10

Last Results with these Odds

Nokian Pyry - the odds 4.02 are the expected chance of winning is 22.58%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- TuTo
Finnish Mestis
26.09.26	TuTo - Imatran Ketterä	6:3 ✺
25.09.26	TuTo - KeuPa	3:2 OT ✺
19.09.26	Hermes Kokkola - TuTo	0:4 ✺
18.09.26	RoKi - TuTo	4:3 penalties ✺
12.09.26	Kiekko-Vantaa - TuTo	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLL
- Nokian Pyry
Finnish Mestis
26.09.26	Hermes Kokkola - Nokian Pyry	5:2 ✺
25.09.26	Nokian Pyry - RoKi	3:1 ✺
19.09.26	Nokian Pyry - Kiekko-Vantaa	1:4 ✺
18.09.26	Joensuun Kiekko-Pojat - Nokian Pyry	4:2 ✺
16.09.26	Nokian Pyry - KeuPa	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Finnish Mestis
11.09.26	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	4:3 OT
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
26.08.26	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	2:5
Finnish Mestis
21.02.26	Nokian Pyry - TuTo	2:4
30.01.26	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	0:3
28.12.25	Nokian Pyry - TuTo	3:4 penalties
27.12.25	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	7:4
31.10.25	TuTo - Nokian Pyry	6:2

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