Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 26 August 2026, Wednesday


	Toros Neftekamsk		Gornyak-UGMK

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.84	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.68 ↑ (2.3)	3.84 ↑ (3.82)	2.15 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toros Neftekamsk
34%

Draw
23.7%

Gornyak-UGMK
42.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

23.6%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

25.2%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toros Neftekamsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toros Neftekamsk's form might have worsened.

Gornyak-UGMK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gornyak-UGMK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toros Neftekamsk than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Period (4 - 1)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
3rd Period (1 - 1)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toros won 1.

Toros is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Gornyak-UGMK's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Gornyak-UGMK may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Gornyak-UGMK has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

We predict that Toros will win today's game, with odds of 2.3.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toros won 11 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 64:52. (average 3.2:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Toros won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 31:27. (average 3.1:2.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Toros Neftekamsk - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 39.24%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 37.14%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toros Neftekamsk
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
24.08.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Metallurg Novokuznetsk	2:3 penalties ✺
15.08.26	Toros Neftekamsk - CSK VVS Samara	3:1 ✺
14.08.26	Neftyanik Almetyevsk - Toros Neftekamsk	1:2 penalties ✺
13.08.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Bars Kazan	6:1 ✺
08.08.26	Izhstal - Toros Neftekamsk	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.4 LWWWW
- Gornyak-UGMK
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
25.08.26	Omskie Krylia - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 OT ✺
13.08.26	SKA-VMF - Gornyak-UGMK	3:1 ✺
12.08.26	Sokol Krasnoyarsk - Gornyak-UGMK	5:2 ✺
11.08.26	Gornyak-UGMK - Khimik	0:2 ✺
10.08.26	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

VHL
14.03.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 OT
12.09.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Toros Neftekamsk	3:2 penalties
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
25.08.25	Toros Neftekamsk - Gornyak-UGMK	3:2
VHL
25.12.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Toros Neftekamsk	3:2
22.11.24	Toros Neftekamsk - Gornyak-UGMK	1:3
16.02.24	Toros Neftekamsk - Gornyak-UGMK	4:1
12.09.23	Gornyak-UGMK - Toros Neftekamsk	5:4

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