Match Info

VHL

Date: 24 September 2026, Thursday

Location: CSKA Arena (Small arena) (Moscow)


	Zvezda Moscow		Gornyak-UGMK

	1	X	2
	2.21	3.63	2.44
	2.14	3.50	2.35
	2.40	3.90	2.51	Watch
	2.30	3.80	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.4)	3.71 ↓ (3.9)	2.43 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.75

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zvezda Moscow
39.4%

Draw
24%

Gornyak-UGMK
36.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

23.7%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

26%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zvezda Moscow has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Gornyak-UGMK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zvezda Moscow than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak UGMK Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Zvezda Moscow (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:2

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Lineups

Line 1
34. Tabatchikov V. (G)	50. Zinaddin L. (G)
23. Grushnikov A.	26. Ishimnikov N.
7. Malyshev A. (A)	8. Karpovich D.
42. Savvateyev V.	91. Makeyev A. (C)
19. Prokhorov A.	13. Zaytsev O. (A)
56. Vlasenko D. (A)	52. Ovchinnikov I.
Line 2
63. Martynov Y.	62. Shchuchinov A.
15. Alexandrov D. (C)	72. Trofimov Y.
87. Yapparov Y.	70. Alexeyev Y.
74. Frolov N.	14. Makhrin M.
97. Churkin A.	44. Lukhovskoy N.
Line 3
3. Sidorov M.	94. Kaigorodov G.
73. Rusakov A.	28. Sitnikov V.
53. Matveiko Y.	96. Miller N.
75. Averochkin M.	27. Yepishchev I.
39. Sklokin M.	9. Makarov R.
Line 4
36. Shelkov M.	54. Boikov D.
37. Mikhailov N.	95. Dumchenko N.
98. Pankratov S.	71. Velikov M.
40. Anokhin P.	18. Sushchev V.
	32. Borisov S.
Substitutes
81. Kloberdanets M. (G)	35. Tulinov N. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (0 - 2)
04:22, 0 - 1, Alexeyev Y. (G), Sitnikov V. (A), Kaigorodov G. (A2)
16:20, 0 - 2, Velikov M. (G), Sitnikov V. (A), Borisov S. (A2)
2nd Period (1 - 1)
16:00, 0 - 3, Borisov S. (G), Miller N. (A),
17:19, 1 - 3, Prokhorov A. (G), Malyshev A. (A), Averochkin M. (A2)
3rd Period (1 - 0)
06:38, 2 - 3, Churkin A. (G), Sidorov M. (A), Frolov N. (A2)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zvezda Moscow won 3.

Zvezda Moscow has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Gornyak-UGMK is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Gornyak-UGMK could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Gornyak-UGMK has had a run of games away from home.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Zvezda Moscow has recorded 8 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 55:55 (averaging 2.8:2.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Zvezda Moscow against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with 30:31 goals (averaging 3:3.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	WO	LO	L		Pts
26	Zvezda Moscow	12	2	2	1	7	26:37	9

Last Results with these Odds

Gornyak-UGMK - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.75%, but this team recently wins 19% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zvezda Moscow
VHL
22.09.26	Zvezda Moscow - Chelmet	1:2 ✺
20.09.26	Zvezda Moscow - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	4:2 ✺
18.09.26	Zvezda Moscow - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	3:2 penalties ✺
13.09.26	Molot Perm - Zvezda Moscow	2:1 ✺
11.09.26	Toros Neftekamsk - Zvezda Moscow	4:5 OT ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 LWWLW
- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
22.09.26	Dinamo St. Petersburg - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 ✺
20.09.26	SKA-VMF - Gornyak-UGMK	3:1 ✺
10.09.26	Gornyak-UGMK - Chelmet	5:0 ✺
06.09.26	Magnitka Magnitogorsk - Gornyak-UGMK	0:1 OT ✺
04.09.26	Yuzhny Ural Orsk - Gornyak-UGMK	3:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly Ice Hockey
10.08.26	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	2:1
VHL
23.12.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Zvezda Moscow	3:0
23.11.25	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	2:3 penalties
Club Friendly Ice Hockey
15.08.25	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	5:1
VHL
10.02.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Zvezda Moscow	4:5 OT
11.10.24	Zvezda Moscow - Gornyak-UGMK	5:4 OT
06.02.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Zvezda Moscow	3:2 OT

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