Match Info

VHL

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Dvorana Sporta (Ryazan)


	Ryazan		Gornyak-UGMK

	1	X	2
	2.99	3.88	2.12
	2.88	4	2.12	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.35)	3.94 ↑ (3.7)	2.12 ↓ (2.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 5.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ryazan
32%

Draw
23.8%

Gornyak-UGMK
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

25.2%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

26.5%

33.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ryazan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ryazan's form might have worsened.

Gornyak-UGMK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gornyak-UGMK's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ryazan than the current prediction. (+9.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ryazan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gornyak-UGMK than the current prediction. (-10.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gornyak-UGMK, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Ryazan - Gornyak UGMK Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:3

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Lineups

Line 1
98. Lubsky M. (G)	30. Novosyolov N. (G)
4. Shalapov Y.	72. Trofimov Y.
17. Trishin A.	4. Bolshakov M.
71. Aliyev R.	96. Miller N.
87. Mingaleyev D.	10. Filyayev V.
7. Gimatov E.	56. Ovchinnikov I.
Line 2
57. Sevostyanov A.	3. Zubarev A.
34. Zotov F.	90. Nekrasov N.
23. Alexeyev Y.	7. Gordin A.
10. Krikunenko R.	13. Zaytsev O.
72. Pereskokov V.	80. Demidovich V.
Line 3
88. Faizullin A.	95. Dumchenko N.
5. Dedov G.	92. Valitov D.
13. Korostelyov M.	14. Makhrin M.
19. Kozlov G.	70. Alexeyev Y.
22. Lapin A.	44. Lukhovskoy N.
Line 4
73. Leshchenko V.	23. Gamzakov M.
38. Shipov I.	71. Velikov M.
11. Rakhimullin D.	18. Sushchev V.
	29. Khremkin K.
Substitutes
9. Sidnev K.	20. Obvintsev T. (G)
80. Smirnov L. (G)	59. Razdyakonov V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Period (3 - 2)
02:06, 0 - 1, Sushchev V. (G), Khremkin K. (A),
05:32, 1 - 1, Leshchenko V. (G), Shipov I. (A), Sidnev K. (A2)
07:27, 2 - 1, Kozlov G. (G), Lapin A. (A), Korostelyov M. (A2)
14:45, 3 - 1, Gimatov E. (G), Trishin A. (A),
19:15, 3 - 2, Lukhovskoy N. (G), Trofimov Y. (A),
2nd Period (0 - 0)
3rd Period (2 - 0)
04', 4 - 2, (G),
07:15, 5 - 2, Shipov I. (G),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ryazan won 2.

Ryazan has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Gornyak-UGMK is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Gornyak-UGMK may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Gornyak-UGMK has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Ryazan won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 38:42. (average 2.4:2.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ryazan won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 21:20. (average 2.6:2.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Ryazan - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.65%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HC Ryazan
VHL
18.09.25	Ryazan - Chelmet	3:1 ✺
16.09.25	Ryazan - Magnitka Magnitogorsk	2:4 ✺
14.09.25	Ryazan - Yuzhny Ural Orsk	1:3 ✺
09.09.25	Torpedo-Gorky - Ryazan	2:3 ✺
07.09.25	Khimik - Ryazan	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLLWL
- Gornyak-UGMK
VHL
18.09.25	AKM - Gornyak-UGMK	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Izhstal	4:0 ✺
12.09.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Toros Neftekamsk	3:2 penalties ✺
10.09.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Molot Perm	4:1 ✺
08.09.25	Gornyak-UGMK - Olympia Kirovo-Chepetsk	7:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

VHL
07.01.25	Ryazan - Gornyak-UGMK	3:5
12.11.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Ryazan	1:2 penalties
12.01.24	Gornyak-UGMK - Ryazan	2:1
07.10.23	Ryazan - Gornyak-UGMK	3:1
30.11.22	Ryazan - Gornyak-UGMK	1:2 penalties
14.11.22	Gornyak-UGMK - Ryazan	2:3 penalties
02.12.21	Ryazan - Gornyak-UGMK	3:2

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