Match Info

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT - MEN: UFC

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Kaseya Center (Miami, FL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	RMC Sport 1
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
Sweden	Viaplay
Turkey	S Sport+
Ukraine	Setanta Sports


	Azamat Murzakanov		Paulo Henrique Costa

	1	2
	1.4	3
	1.31	3.55
	1.42	3.07
	1.4	2.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.51)	3.13 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Azamat Murzakanov
69.3%

Paulo Henrique Costa
30.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63.1%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Azamat Murzakanov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Azamat Murzakanov's performance.

Paulo Henrique Costa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paulo Henrique Costa might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Azamat Murzakanov - Paulo Henrique Costa Predictions

Users Predictions: Azamat Murzakanov will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

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Preview

Murzakanov could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the fighters.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Azamat Murzakanov
MMA
25.10.25	Aleksandar Rakic - Azamat Murzakanov	Murzakanov A. - 2nd Round TKO ✺
07.06.25	Azamat Murzakanov - Brendson Ribeiro	Murzakanov A. - 1st Round TKO ✺
07.06.25	Johnny Walker - Azamat Murzakanov	Canceled ✺
16.11.24	Nikita Krylov - Azamat Murzakanov	Canceled ✺
03.08.24	Azamat Murzakanov - Alonzo Menifield	Murzakanov A. - 2nd Round TKO ✺
- Paulo Henrique Costa
MMA
19.07.25	Paulo Henrique Costa - Roman Kopylov	Costa P. H. win ✺
01.06.24	Sean Strickland - Paulo Henrique Costa	Strickland S. win ✺
17.02.24	Robert Whittaker - Paulo Henrique Costa	Whittaker R. win ✺
21.10.23	Paulo Henrique Costa - Khamzat Chimaev	Canceled ✺
29.07.23	Paulo Henrique Costa - Ikram Aliskerov	Canceled ✺

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Azamat Murzakanov
MMA
24.10.26	Azamat Murzakanov - Dominick Reyes	✺

Azamat Murzakanov - Paulo Henrique Costa: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide