Match Info

LIGHTWEIGHT - MEN: UFC

Date: 8 November 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: UFC Apex (Las Vegas, NV) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:


	Chris Padilla		Ismael Bonfim

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Chris Padilla
46.2%

Ismael Bonfim
53.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.3%

65.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chris Padilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chris Padilla's performance.

Ismael Bonfim has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ismael Bonfim might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Padilla (votes: 2 - 100%).

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The chances of victory for both fighters are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the fighters did not meet on the field.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chris Padilla
MMA
22.03.25	Jai Herbert - Chris Padilla	Padilla C. win ✺
07.09.24	Zhu Rong - Chris Padilla	Padilla C. - 2nd Round TKO ✺
27.04.24	James Llontop - Chris Padilla	Padilla C. - 1st Round TKO ✺
20.01.18	Chris Padilla - Gabriel Green	Green G. win Green G. - Round 1 Submission ✺
- Ismael Bonfim
MMA
15.02.25	Ismael Bonfim - Nazim Sadykhov	Sadykhov N. - 1st Round TKO ✺
04.05.24	Ismael Bonfim - Vinc Pichel	Bonfim I. win ✺
04.11.23	Ismael Bonfim - Vinc Pichel	Canceled ✺
01.07.23	Ismael Bonfim - Benoit Saint-Denis	Saint-Denis B. - 1st Round TKO ✺
21.01.23	Ismael Bonfim - Terrance McKinney	Bonfim I. - 2nd Round KO ✺

Chris Padilla - Ismael Bonfim: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide