Match Info

LIGHTWEIGHT - MEN: UFC

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Rogers Arena (Vancouver, BC)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN
Bulgaria	Max Sport 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	TNT Sports 1


	Kyle Nelson		Matt Frevola

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Kyle Nelson
50.9%

Matt Frevola
49.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

44.9%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kyle Nelson has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Kyle Nelson's performance.

Matt Frevola has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Matt Frevola might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

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In this match, both fighters have almost equal chances to win.

In recent times, the fighters did not meet on the field.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kyle Nelson
MMA
07.09.24	Steve Garcia - Kyle Nelson	Garcia S. - 1st Round TKO ✺
30.03.24	Bill Algeo - Kyle Nelson	Nelson K. - 1st Round TKO ✺
16.09.23	Fernando Padilla - Kyle Nelson	Nelson K. win ✺
10.06.23	Kyle Nelson - Blake Bilder	Nelson K. win ✺
05.02.23	Doo Ho Choi - Kyle Nelson	✺
- Matt Frevola
MMA
28.09.24	Fares Ziam - Matt Frevola	Ziam F. - 2nd Round KO ✺
11.11.23	Matt Frevola - Benoit Saint-Denis	Saint-Denis B. - 1st Round KO ✺
06.05.23	Drew Dober - Matt Frevola	Frevola M. - 1st Round TKO ✺
12.11.22	Matt Frevola - Ottman Azaitar	Frevola M. - 1st Round KO ✺
22.01.22	Matt Frevola - Genaro Valdéz	Frevola M. - 1st Round TKO ✺

Kyle Nelson - Matt Frevola: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide