Match Info

FLYWEIGHT - MEN: UFC

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Farmasi Arena (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 1, Polsat Sport Premium 1


	Lucas Rocha		Stewart Nicoll

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Lucas Rocha
45.9%

Stewart Nicoll
54.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

50.5%

49.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lucas Rocha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Stewart Nicoll has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Nicoll (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

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The chances of victory for both fighters are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the fighters have not faced each other.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lucas Rocha
MMA
12.10.24	Clayton Carpenter - Lucas Rocha	Carpenter C. - 2nd Round TKO ✺
06.04.24	Joshua Van - Lucas Rocha	Canceled ✺
- Stewart Nicoll
MMA
17.08.24	Stewart Nicoll - Jesus Aguilar	Aguilar J. S. - 1st Round TKO ✺

Lucas Rocha - Stewart Nicoll: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide