Match Info

Top 14 - Round 5

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Jean-Dauger (Bayonne)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 2
United-kingdom	FloSports app
World	TOP 14 Rugby TV


	Aviron Bayonnais		Stade Français

	1	X	2
	1.33	26	3.4
	1.3	23	3.65
	1.33	23.03	3.64	Watch
	1.3	22	3.6
	1.26	18	3.85
	1.3	24	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.31)	22.67 ↓ (22.69)	3.63 ↓ (3.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 56.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aviron Bayonnais
70.6%

Draw
4.1%

Stade Français
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.4%

4.1%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aviron Bayonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Stade Français has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Bayonne will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 33:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bordelai A.	1. Iscaro J.
2. Cramont G.	2. Peyresblanques L.
3. Tatafu T.	3. Melikidze G.
4. Geraci K.	4. Gabrillagues P.
5. Uhila M.	5. Metz F.
6. Fischer A.	6. Huguet P.
7. Habel Kueffner G.	7. Hirigoyen M.
8. Capilla E.	8. Scelzo J. M.
9. Coly L.	9. Kerr-Barlow T.
10. Segonds J.	10. Carbonel L.
11. Carreras M.	11. Etien L.
12. Tuilagi M.	12. Vili T.
13. Maqala S.	13. Delbouis J.
14. Spring T.	14. Ibo M.
15. Tiberghien C.	15. Barre L.
Substitutes
16. Bosch F.	16. Maka T.
17. Calles I.	17. Abramishvili S.
18. Johnson E.	18. Halaifonua T.
19. Bruni R.	19. Tanga Mangene Y.
20. Heguy B.	20. Motassi T.
21. Tilloles B.	21. Nene N.
22. du Preez R.	22. Botha J.
23. Setiano E.	23. Alo-Emile M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (17 - 8)
2', Bordelai A. (Try),
2', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
18', Carbonel L. (Penalty Goal),
21', Tiberghien C. (Try),
22', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
37', Vili T. (Try),
38', Carbonel L. (Missed Conversion),
40+1', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (18 - 24)
46', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
52', Carreras M. 🟨,
54', Kerr-Barlow T. (Try),
60', Kerr-Barlow T. (Try),
60', Carbonel L. (Conversion Goal),
62', Barre L. (Try),
65', Carbonel L. (Missed Conversion),
68', Capilla E. (Try),
71', Segonds J. (Missed Conversion),
71', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
77', Bruni R. (Try),
78', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
80+3', Carbonel L. (Penalty Try),
80:02, Capilla E. 🟨,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 4th in the Promotion - Top 14 Playoffs - Quarter - finals and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayonne won 2.

Bayonne carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Our forecast points to a victory for Bayonne in today's match, at odds of 1.32.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Bayonne has recorded 9 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 422:467 (averaging 21.1:23.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bayonne against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 225:173 goals (averaging 22.5:17.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Aviron Bayonnais	5	4	0	1	156:169	17
10	Stade Francais Paris	5	2	0	3	117:136	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
26.09.26	Racing Métro - Aviron Bayonnais	17:20 ✺
19.09.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Clermont	46:24 ✺
12.09.26	Section Paloise - Aviron Bayonnais	70:28 ✺
05.09.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulon	27:26 ✺
06.06.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Perpignan	52:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWLWW
- Stade Français
French Top 14
26.09.26	Stade Français - Lyon	31:10 ✺
20.09.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Stade Français	40:10 ✺
12.09.26	Clermont - Stade Français	25:16 ✺
05.09.26	Stade Français - Perpignan	28:26 ✺
20.06.26	Montpellier - Stade Français	25:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.3 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
30.05.26	Stade Français - Aviron Bayonnais	38:21
27.12.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	35:34
22.03.25	Stade Français - Aviron Bayonnais	31:27
01.12.24	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	21:13
20.04.24	Stade Français - Aviron Bayonnais	28:24
29.10.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	16:3
18.02.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	29:26

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