Match Info

Top 14 - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 20 June 2026, Saturday

Location: Orange Velodrome (Marseille)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Asia	TV5 Monde Asia
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport
Europe	TV5 Monde Europe
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
Portugal	Sport TV2
South-america	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
Spain	M+ Deportes 2
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Usa	TV5 Monde


	Montpellier		Stade Français

	1	X	2
	1.44	21	2.88
	1.48	23	2.7
	1.5	21.35	2.84	Watch
	1.5	23	2.7
	1.45	18	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.55)	21.27 ↑ (18.48)	2.78 ↑ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 52.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
62.5%

Draw
4.3%

Stade Français
33.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

5.1%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

5.1%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Stade Français has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stade Français than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Montpellier - Stade Français Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Montpellier will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Erdocio B.	1. Iscaro J.
2. Uelese J.	2. Nicotera G.
3. Haouas M.	3. Alo-Emile P.
4. Verhaeghe F.	4. Gabrillagues P. (C)
5. Duguid T.	5. Pesenti B.
6. Nouchi L. (C)	6. Halaifonua T.
7. Becognee A.	7. Briatte R.
8. Vunipola V.	8. Tanga Mangene Y.
9. Price A.	9. Kerr-Barlow T.
10. Miotti H.	10. Carbonel L.
11. Taofifenua D.	11. Marchant J.
12. Cadot A.	12. Nene N.
13. Vincent A.	13. Ward J. C.
14. Ngandebe G.	14. Dakuwaqa P.
15. Banks T.	15. Barre L.
Substitutes
16. Tolofua C.	16. Peyresblanques L.
17. Forletta E.	17. Paiva T.
18. Beard A.	18. Azagoh P.
19. Masibaka A.	19. Hirigoyen M.
20. Coly L.	20. Abadie P.
21. Piccardo J.	21. Vili T.
22. Darmon T.	22. Ezeala S.
23. Hounkpatin W.	23. Alo-Emile M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (16 - 15)
3', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
7', Carbonel L. (Penalty Goal),
10', Banks T. (Try),
10', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
13', Kerr-Barlow T. (Penalty Try),
15', Dakuwaqa P. (Try),
22', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
27', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
33', Alo-Emile P. 🟨,
2nd Half (9 - 0)
45', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
53', Miotti H. (Penalty Goal),
72', Coly L. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Neutral location - Orange Velodrome.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 2.

Montpellier is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Stade Français is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Montpellier may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Montpellier will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Montpellier will win today's game, with odds of 1.52.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 10 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 480:437. (average 24:21.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 293:166. (average 29.3:16.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
6	Stade Francais Paris	6	3	0	3	147:158	14
7	Montpellier	6	3	0	3	163:122	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier Hérault RC
French Top 14
06.06.26	Lyon - Montpellier	25:28 ✺
30.05.26	Montpellier - Section Paloise	26:18 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
22.05.26	Montpellier - Ulster	59:26 ✺
French Top 14
16.05.26	Castres - Montpellier	33:36 ✺
09.05.26	Montpellier - Montauban	59:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWWWW
- Stade Français
French Top 14
14.06.26	Stade Français - La Rochelle	45:5 ✺
06.06.26	La Rochelle - Stade Français	27:22 ✺
30.05.26	Stade Français - Aviron Bayonnais	38:21 ✺
16.05.26	Montauban - Stade Français	25:71 ✺
09.05.26	Stade Français - Lyon	59:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
31.01.26	Montpellier - Stade Français	44:7
25.10.25	Stade Français - Montpellier	35:12
29.03.25	Montpellier - Stade Français	38:32
05.10.24	Stade Français - Montpellier	29:20
30.03.24	Montpellier - Stade Français	10:12
02.09.23	Stade Français - Montpellier	24:14
25.02.23	Stade Français - Montpellier	27:17

Montpellier - Stade Français: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide